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This isn't the argument I am making. The argument is that LLMs make certain types of errors which suggest that they are unable to create models of the world, something which is arguably necessary for understanding.
There's no need to be nasty about it. Especially since you are the one who misunderstood my point.
You gave no justification for why the types of errors you listed are in some different category than the types of errors I listed. Both involve answering questions that require some understanding of how the real world works. I'd argue committing the Conjunction Fallacy is just as egregious an error as failing the car wash "puzzle" (which thinking models mostly don't do, anyway). I think it's just because you're used to the limitations of humans and so you don't think our blind spots "count".
I flip five coins. Am I more, less, or equally likely to see the pattern HHT (at some point) vs the pattern HTH? If you don't know the answer, then you're failing at mentally modeling a very very simple real-world scenario of five coin flips, which has only 32 possibilities.
Assuming this is true, so what? Let me ask you this:
Do you dispute that humans can and do regularly create mental models of the universe?
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