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Dwarkesh Patel interviews Jensen Huang.
I'm no tech expert, and I'm pretty much a single-issue poster on China here, so I pay attention only from the 57th minute. It's worth a listen.
Here's my interpretation of the case laid out by Dwarkesh, although he didn't spell it all out. Some in the US, especially the Silicon Valley tech bros (exactly the kind of attitude Dwarkesh puts on display, and also Dario Amodei and his cult followers, and some here), believe that in the brief window before we hit the technological singularity, America can and will ride its computing power advantage to total dominance over AI and, by extension, the future of humanity. Under this logic, any computing power exported to China during this window is a direct blow to American national interests. The goal is very focused: sprint past the finish line, and everything else will sort itself out afterward, China included. If you want to solve the energy crisis? Invest in AI. If you want to end world hunger? Invest in AI. If you want to make sure the yellow vermin stay in their place? Invest in AI, told you already.
But 1) how far away that singularity actually is remains unclear (I'm not sure, again I am no expert on AI or anything this forum is familiar with, so feel free to lay out your thoughts on why the tech singularity is in sight). 2) US-China competition is a long game. Both countries are formidable, and in different ways. Both countries largest threat is from the inside, not the outside. There is no silver bullet that delivers a knockout blow. It's naive to think that restrictions on computing power, rare earths, or the like can permanently lock the other side out. What it will for sure do is generate animosity and bellicosity, with intensity up to a scale never seen before on this planet. This is probably partly why rare earth controls, effective as they are, haven't been deployed on a permanent basis. 3) There is a profound deficit of goodwill between the US and China, and that poses an enormous security risk to both nations and the world at large. This risk is far more real than the doomsday anxieties peddled by those types who love to brand themselves as "effective altruism" advocates, wringing their hands over alignment and the specter of a superintelligent AI annihilating the world. Export controls and measures of that sort are therefore much harm and dubious gain. At their core, they reflect a desire by certain people to take a shortcut, convinced that this one move alone can defeat China and "secure the light cone." I think this is pure fantasy, likely just another manifestation of a weird complex.
Which brings me to something more personal, because I realize I can't talk about this purely in the abstract. I love my country (contrary to what some seem to believe, people in China do love China, not all, but still. I can't believe this needs to be spelled out but apparently so). But I also like the Americans, in fact more so than most other peoples. I like power and I like a country that is strong and powerful, and I think that is a virtue in its own right. It demonstrates the vitality of the culture that country is founded on, which I think provide a lot for Chinese to learn from. I think for the most part the Americans I've met and know have treated me well, and respected me, and I think it is my duty to return that. But something has been puzzling me for some time, maybe because of my apparent inability to understand conflict. I do not understand why China and America have to be in conflict. I don't think the current situation is only any particular country's fault; it's complex and in many ways an extension of domestic issues; it's fueled by mutual misunderstanding which I think is somewhat lopsided given the lack of American in China but not vice versa; it's also because China for a long time until recently was not a functional society and ran by either corrupt (physically and/or spiritually) or megalomaniac people, and that itself creates all sorts of troubles that overflow beyond the border; it's also because of the growing anxiety among Americans due to societal rot, and the impulse to seek a simple explanation and target to avoid facing the real issues. But I do not understand it. To use what Xi said, the Pacific seems wide enough to contain two powers, and I think the years of collaboration and positive competition between China and the US have benefited both, tremendously so. I also believe that the right position on a wide variety of social and economic issues is somewhere in between those of China and the US, and that losing either one is like losing a mirror to reflect upon, which hastens the decadence of each. I can't think of "rational" reasons why this has to be confrontational.
Maybe this is all motivated reasoning, but all reasoning is motivated. Anyways, thoughts?
Honestly, if China wasn't run by Godless Communists, I'd have far fewer issues with them competing against America economically (or otherwise). Not to say there would be zero concern about those things, for example I don't like US manufacturing being hollowed out by Chinese competition, but the overwhelming weight of my concerns about China are the ends they are using their economy and political and military and cultural influence towards.
Which is it, the Godless part, the Communist part, or both? The communist part is less and less true by the day, unless you're the communist plan trusters who think we'll get there eventually and all these reforms are just means to an end. I think there are true communists among the high echelons of the party, but if they keep going down the current economic path they're not going to get what they wished.
Which ends? What do you think the endgame for the godless communists is? World domination? World revolution? Spreading atheist ideology across the world?
I think most people in senior positions in the party, including Xi himself, are true believer communists in a ideological sense. Nothing the CCP has done since Deng really contradicts Marx and Engels, who were clear that a long capitalist phase was necessary (implicitly to drive down widget costs by competition) before socialism could be achieved. Amusingly this may be the best way of justifying the highly destructive involution / neijuan process going on now.
Even Lenin agreed with this, hence the NEP - only Stalin and those inspired by him (Mao, Castro) didn’t (and that ideological turn was largely self-serving in his battle to consolidate state power, eliminate Trotskyism, and prevent the emergence of anyone with influence or wealth who could challenge him domestically). The turn to capitalism was an about-face, sure, but it isn’t inherently a rejection of communism because communism is a process that in theory involves capitalism (and feudalism and so on).
In my understanding the idea that the communists are being ideologically sidelined in the party elite is more of a fantasy of very online Chinese nationalists who are more ambivalent on Marxism and the CCP (even if they’re often very careful to only imply this rather than say it outright) and who care more about a grander trajectory of Chinese civilization to which the ideology of 1947-present isn’t central. But to the actual rulers of China, the children and grandchildren, by and large, of the revolutionaries themselves, it is central.
I see that you read Tanner Greer perhaps, and those books from the red princelings.
I don't pretend to know what the Standing Committee of the Politburo thinks. But the fact is that China is less meaningfully communist, in both the ideological and material sense, than it was in Mao's era, and even less so than in Deng's era (yes, even that; Deng was surrounded by old guard revolutionaries, and of course he himself was one). If you read whatever documents they publish in Chinese now, they do invoke "socialism", "core values of socialism", and all sorts of jargon frequently. But what are these socialist core values? "爱国、敬业、诚信、友善 (Patriotism, Dedication, Integrity, Friendliness)." Tell me what's socialist about that. "Patriotism" is literally the first value they think individual Chinese citizens should have. The "Socialist Concepts of Honor and Grace"? "以热爱祖国为荣 以危害祖国为耻 (Love the motherland as an honor; harming the motherland as a disgrace)." Tell me again what's socialist about these values.
"Socialism with Chinese characteristics" is transparently a middle ground between communism and Chinese nationalism. The old aesthetics of red banners, "Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution", and steel-jawed workers have been replaced by LED hellscapes, "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", and steel-jawed workers. I understand that it is possible that none of the material conditions matter to the Great Man, as they have proven again and again. But even they cannot pretend that they will certainly, certainly get to their communist paradise one day. They will not live to see it; they cannot guarantee it. What they do know, perhaps, is that the Chinese nation will outlast them, for millennia to come. Mao himself certainly knows that and acknowledged that. I hope they realize this sooner rather than later, and I think they do.
I find the comparisons to the Soviets beside the point. I do not think we are as ideologically devoted as the Russians were, in fact that's partially what's charming about the Russians, that their populace truly believe those nonsense. China have not exported the ideology abroad since Mao, and even Mao himself was, like Stalin, a "socialism in one country first" type, less ideological fervor than proselytizing Trotskyites. Our people have been materialistic, or what I prefer, realistic, in the sense that actions are dictated by things on "this shore" (I believe this is a Buddhist term, "this shore" being our world, "the other shore" being the spiritual world).
Mao, megalomaniac as he was, and a sincere believer in communist ideology, was both a Chinese nationalist and a communist. He behaved like the emperors, he ruled like the emperors. He had communist ideals and aesthetics, but he was not meaningfully different from the First Emperor and many after him. He even compared himself to the first emperor, a lot in fact. I do not know if Stalin thought of himself as the latest repetition of the Tsar lineage, but Mao certainly did to some extent, as did his wife, who compared herself to Wu Zetian or Empress Lyu. He destroyed a huge fraction of meaningful Chinese culture, but that impulse was not atypical for 20th century Chinese intellectuals, who believed the root of all ills of the Chinese state was Chinese culture itself, who wanted to abandon Chinese characters, Chinese clothing, and Chinese ways of thinking. The Nationalist KMT is filled with those people too, who think Chinese culture is what's stopping China from being powerful. Are they communists too? All of them were still Chinese at their core. The Chinese communists did not reject communism; they did believe in it. But I have a hard time believing that they placed their ideology above the Chinese state.
The Chinese state is the Chinese religion. It is what people believe in. It is "the other shore" of the Chinese people.
Guilty as charged. I do not think the communists are being ideologically sidelined; I think they are less communist than you believe and more nationalist than you give them credit for.
How many very online Chinese nationalists have you actually interacted with? The majority of them practice a confusing and self-contradictory brand of Chinese nationalism, syncretic with socialist third-worldism. It is not a clean or coherent ideology and I do not like it.
It doesn't matter. Like the Manchus before them, they are surrounded by, and have to source talent from, a largely Han nationalist base. Are the revolutionary families breeding like rabbits? Unless they are, I don't see how they can maintain their true communist selves without being absorbed by the nationalism around them.
I agree that modern China barely qualifies as communist, and mainlanders care way more about the Chinese nation-building project than they do communism as an end-goal. However, I do want to touch on a tangential comment here as an excuse to talk about something that annoys me:
I always hear this stated, but in spite of its popularity as an idea I've never actually heard anyone base this off any proper quantification of the mentioned losses in Chinese culture, and this sentiment is often expressed by people with a clear China Bad agenda to illustrate the illegitimacy of the modern Chinese state and to distance it from the history its people seem to derive a huge amount of national identity from. It's not incorrect that Mao's actions were often destructive, it's also not incorrect that criticism of Chinese tradition was a huge trend in early 20th-century Chinese thought (and not just communist ones), but in general I actually think Chinese culture has proven surprisingly resilient in the turmoil of the 20th century. In the Deng era there was a huge resurgence of many religions and ideas that had been thoroughly criticised throughout the Cultural Revolution, Confucianism being a big one. This article makes a pretty good argument that it never "died out", and its resurgence was less revival and more an example of ancient tradition experiencing organic evolution through the stressors of the 20th century. I also remember reading a book about Cultural Revolution culture that basically argued that it was often based off aspects of traditional culture (such as the yangbanxi model plays being based off Beijing Opera), which often had the ironic effect of indirectly inducing more interest in traditional Chinese culture in many of those who were exposed to it. That book also contained a large number of anecdotes from people suggesting that in practice they maintained a lot of traditional customs in the countryside outside of the purview of authorities during the CR, that in spite of the official party line they continued to practice what they knew. Chinese culture survives reasonably well in my opinion, and there are many visible manifestations of that in the rural celebrations and religious festivities that still continue within the country.
It's also helpful to consider how China fits into larger East Asian context in this regard. Pretty much no East Asian country survived its modernisation period intact; even Japan, a country which is (IMO incorrectly) perceived as uniquely preservationist, was no stranger to iconoclastic campaigns that criticised Japanese culture and in general had its culture hugely altered in virtually every way during modernisation. I would say that many aspects of Japanese culture that exist today and are thought to be ancient practice date back 20th/late 19th century at earliest, given the immense change the Meiji period wrought. It's known that Meiji destroyed a large amount of feudal castles, but he also issued a shinbutsu bunri doctrine forcibly separating Shintoism and Buddhism, pretty much ending the centuries-long syncretism that had characterised Japanese religion; this separation continues into the modern day. Due to the Buddhists' deep association with the Tokugawa shogunate, there was a period of violent iconoclasm against Buddhists and their relics known as haibutsu kishaku, which saw approx 40,000 temples and their relics destroyed; there are some Japanese prefectures completely lacking extant pre-Meiji Buddhist temples for that reason. Shintoism was reformed and repurposed into a cult of the emperor (State Shinto), an alliance which Buddhists also tried to emulate for survival, and this period also saw Buddhist priests brought down to the level of the laity once the Meiji state abolished the dictums that priests should avoid meat and remain celibate. To this day, Shinto as a distinct and unitary religion is actually a modern concept whose organisation derives from Meiji-era State Shinto. Japanese Buddhism is still characterised by the lack of its Vinaya Pitaka disciplinary code for practitioners, and they often eat meat, which is very not in line with Mahayana tradition. Many other related aspects of Japanese culture that are seen as traditional are actually modern - for example the association of torii gates and shimenawa ropes with Shinto shrines or the custom that Shintoists wear white while Buddhists wear black are actually distinctions that really only stem from Meiji period separation policy. There's also other things I could talk about, such as the forced closures and decline of food-cart yatai culture, or the adoption of Gregorian dates for the Japanese new year and heavy westernisation of the celebration.
All this is to say that sure China did not survive the 20th century unscathed, but deep cultural modification is something that occurred in most East Asian countries during their modernisation, I don't think it's at all a given that China has been the most modified by modernity or iconoclasm in the region. It's always very jarring whenever I see the "death of Chinese culture" being brought up; the amount of times it gets mentioned is just disproportionate relative to the degree of cultural loss it experienced, especially when you compare it with the rest of East Asia.
You have a more balanced take on China than most here, I think. Probably because you have actually been to the country. Looks like you've had a good time.
I don't think we're actually in disagreement here at all. I agree with this completely. Different emphasis of course.
First of all, I am Chinese. Not just ethnically Chinese, but Chinese Chinese. Of course that does not mean that I’m always right about China, but I'm not your average "China bad" westerner who barely knows anything about the country but still has the chutzpah to comment on it profusely, nor am I someone who left the country with hatred and is desperate to prove they didn't make the wrong choice by refusing to acknowledge China's progress. You can check my post history if you like.
When I say Mao destroyed a huge fraction of meaningful Chinese culture, I mean exactly that, no more, no less. I never said he completely destroyed Chinese culture, which as you correctly note is resilient, shared by hundreds of millions of people (at his time around 400 million), and rooted not only in tangible things like architecture, art, and clothing, but also in customs, mannerisms, and ways of thinking. It's hard to imagine how anyone could destroy it completely, even someone wielding Mao's level of power, which again is like the First Emperor who changed the trajectory of Chinese history but did not “destroy” the culture despite his effort. The Mongols, the Manchus, the Communists all changed Chinese culture meaningfully, but none of them managed to destroy it, and hopefully none in the future will either.
And as I said in the original post, and as you've acknowledged, this destruction was part of a broader reformist project stretching from the Opium Wars (or the Xinhai Revolution, depending on how you frame it) through the founding (and I’d say the subsequent ~60 years) of the PRC. There is a long history of Chinese scholars and politicians who considered Chinese culture itself inferior and in need of total reimagination, so that our people could survive in the modern world. (And to be honest, that impulse is itself very Chinese. The ruthless utilitarianism aimed at maximizing our people's survival).
Do you speak Chinese? Next time you visit, if you find someone willing, you can ask them. The people who answer this question will certainly have their biases, but those who decline to answer probably have nothing interesting to say anyway, so you're not missing out. I hope translation tools these days can help you communicate better with the locals.
The early Chinese communists had little respect for their own culture. I wish someone had told them about Chesterton’s fence. They tore down things they didn’t fully understand. The rituals, the mannerisms, the syncretic folk religions, the Confucian virtues, the family structures; these existed for reasons. Like their counterparts in Russia, Cambodia, and Vietnam, they demolished before they had anything to put in their place. I’m speaking abstractly for now, but I’ll try to quantify what I mean.
For tangible losses, I'll spare us both the time. I believe Wikipedia has a page on artifacts destroyed during the Cultural Revolution. But that's not actually the main point.
What we lost in direction: The most important loss, to my mind, is that we lost the ability to modernize in a way that was Chinese rather than Western (or Russian, which is of course Western but with its own flavor). At the critical turning point of the 20th century, it was not Chinese culture and its traditions guiding the reform movement. It was Western models of industrialization and modernization that shaped Chinese society. The result still has a distinctly Chinese flavor, I won't deny that, but it is not a natural extension of Chinese culture; it is precisely the outcome of a rejection of Chinese culture. The breakdown of the Confucian value system had profound effects as well, but I won’t elaborate here. It may be true that given time, the Chinese state will revert toward its roots, and I think we're moving in that direction (in other words, the kids are alright), but I'm not entirely sure.
What we lost in aesthetics: We also lost a significant part of the aesthetic sensibility unique to Chinese civilization. The Chinese aesthetics I love deeply are not what the median Chinese person understands or prefers today. Take any Chinese city you've visited. Almost all of them, except a select few in the Yangtze Delta, are ugly by my standards: a strange amalgamation of cargo-cult Western style, remnants of Communist-era aesthetics, and some uninformed, almost orientalist imagination of what "Chinese" culture should look like, eg those replica “old towns”. People wear clothing littered with nonsensical English. People listen to trashy music in English (and Korean and Japanese, from cultures that are themselves culturally colonized to varying degrees depending on how you see it). Mention traditional Chinese aesthetics to random dude on the street and and you get a blank look or a vague appraisal without specifics; at worst they tell you it's 土, "crude" "hillbilly”. I know that kids these days are getting better, but it’s difficukt for me to know how widespread this newly found appreciation for traditional culture is, given how isolated everyone is in their respective social circles.
What we lost in transmission. There is a generational loss of Chinese culture spanning the period from the Opium Wars, through the Sino-Japanese Wars, the Eight-Nation Alliance and the Boxer Rebellion, and all the devastation and famine these brought, up through the end of the Cultural Revolution when revolutionary fervor died off and people began to live "normally." Many ways of thinking, traditions, and techniques were lost because more than one generation fits inside that window of absolute chaos, and cultural knowledge, tangible or intangible, needs living people to carry it forward. If generations grow up without that cultural exposure, they come to see their own culture as foreign. We can recover a lot of the aesthetics and tangible artifacts, but the intangible things lost are not so easily restored. Even for myself, someone who has read far more history and is far more aware of the tradition than most, feel distant (not exactly the right word but I hope you understand what I mean) from traditional Chinese culture. How many of us have read the entire Dialects? The 四书五经, which every scholar in the old days could recite? I can tell you confidently that even among the most educated Chinese, the graduates of Tsinghua and Peking, the number is surprisingly low for the former and almost unheard of outside of people who study Chinese and history for the latter. I'm trying my best to regain it. Maybe it's because I hold a higher standard than most, but I find it disturbing how much Western literature and culture I've absorbed while my knowledge of Chinese literature remains comparatively sparse compared to Chinese back in the days that are in the same social stratum. Also I suspect I am simply more sensitive to what has been lost than you might be, if you're not Chinese yourself.
Precisely, and you can actually see the damage by looking at the regional variation. Compare the more clannish, "traditional" provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with the less clannish, more turbulent north. Northern China is surprisingly culturally barren. It contains some of the most important symbols of Chinese civilization, in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan. But the people who live there today are nothing like that heritage would suggest. What traditions do they preserve? I'm a northerner myself, and my honest assessment is: surprisingly little. Of course we still live a Chinese way of life, celebrating the things that matter. But look at the Cantonese and compare how much tradition survives there, precisely because their clannish nature insulated them from the worst effects of the Cultural Revolution. The difference is pretty clear. Again, I'm not saying the culture is destroyed. I'm saying it's more damaged than I would prefer.
I don't perceive Japan as uniquely preservationist either. Their culture, especially after WWII, is meaningfully different from their traditional culture. And as you note, much of their current "traditional culture" dates to the 19th and 20th centuries, when the modern nation-state of Japan formed and began constructing its founding mythos around nationalism. My rough gauge based on my lack of knowledge in Japanese history: I think we fared a bit better than post-WWII Japan, but worse than post-Black Ship Japan. You can use that to calibrate where I stand.
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