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The Houthi threat to shipping is not based on the Yemeni drone industry. Failed states do not have domestic armaments industries. Somehow they still seem to be lousy with weapons.
And? If the US inflicts a lot of harm on Iran an Iran inflicts a little bit of harm on the US, that looks like a bad outcome for both the US and Iran. War is a negative-sum game, and "neither side gets a good result" is a possible outcome, indeed probably the default outcome.
Right now America is doing worse than they were doing in Iraq in 2003. Not much worse - I am happy to concede they are still "winning" in the way they "won" in Iraq. But all you are saying here is that US forces are closer to the "Mission Accomplished" moment than some war-sceptics think they are.
The technical ability of the US to administer air-power-based punishment beatings to Iran is not in doubt. The argument is about what political goals, if any, can be achieved using punishment beatings alone, and whether they are worth the consumption of materiel and damage to the world economy.
This is the problem in the analysis. Maybe this is worth exploring.
The potential benefit to America winning this war is huge. We defeat an ancient enemy that has killed American soldiers for fifty years. We create a new order in the Middle East that turns a black hole of money and blood into an oasis of energy and peace. America acquires a dominant controlling position over global energy markets. We control the major global choke points of shipping. America eliminates the artificially cheap source of oil China was using to industrialize at our expense. America eliminates a major provider of arms to Russia. America remakes the entire global order and neutralizes one of our most intransigent foes.
The return on investment here is immeasurable. It almost can’t be measured in money because it is the thing on which money itself has value. America will be in the most dominant global position it has ever been, a new apogee of power.
If you run the Expected Value calculations here, Iran would have to impose tremendous costs on America for this to not be worth it. Collapse of the empire level costs. Thousands of soldiers dead, navies destroyed, American tech revealed as a pipe dream scam, territory lost.
People are talking as if this is happening, but mostly all Iran is able to do is bottleneck the strait and disrupt the supply of oil. This is already being solved. The part that can’t be replaced is so far being digested by global markets.
I’m somewhat aware that as I make this case I sound sycophantic as if denying the costs of war and I suspect this is why may deny my analysis. What I am saying is that in the big picture these costs are rounding errors. Iran is not hitting America where it hurts and probably can’t. Maybe planes shot down and bases attacked are high costs to pay but in the broader context the operation has been extremely successful.
It might not look this way read from European headlines about the chaos Trump is causing and kvetching about oil being a dollar higher than it was before. But overall Trump is playing for all the marbles and has every reason to keep going
This is almost word for word what people said in the lead up to the second Iraq war except the names of the adversaries are different. And hey we won! Iraq is a mostly democratic country. Was it worth it? no. The Europeans and the Chinese are able to do business with the Middle East without constantly bombing it. America should do the same.
Dubai was an Oasis of energy and peace. Now the influencers are dodging drones and blocking their condo windows with mattresses. Pre-war the Middle East was at peace except for Israel's borders and Yemen. Now the entire eastern half the formerly peaceful Persian gulf region is on fire and half a dozen countries have been drawn into the conflict.
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This is getting sad.
Russian drones are made in Russia (with Chinese components). Modern Gerans have little in common with Shahed-136, Iran provided the initial IP, not current supply. You're literally just regurgitating propaganda headlines, in this case "primitive Russians can't make drones and depend on Iranian industry".
And what "at our expense"? You mean at the expense of sanctions you put on Iranian oil, making China the buyer of last resort?
Very well, let us see.
This style of argument would be a lot more productive and interesting if you didn’t make what I said artificially dumb
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