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Notes -
is the recent spate of deaths among American and Chinese scientists the beginning of a
-hot-warm war with China?From Newsweek: Chinese Scientists Have Been Dying Mysterious Deaths Too
The author is a senior reporter for Newsweek, with publications in the NYT and some other major publications. She is also a former senior fellow in the Asia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations and a nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Not a crackpot contributor as might be expected from the insane premise! She seems to have connections within the Chinese circle of influence.
If there’s really a tit for tat of targetting each other’s scientists, then I think our immigration policy will prove to be a grave mistake. There are 265,000 Chinese students in America, and probably hundreds of thousands of Chinese who own or work in the huge nationwide Chinese restaurant industry. The CCP would be able to place agents around America with complete ease. America would have a difficult time doing the same. We saw recently in Iran how effective it is to place drones around an enemy country, and Iranians were so afraid of threats from their immigrant community that they deported 1.5 million Afghans.
This theory would explain why America has had disappearances and not just deaths:
The above sounds to me like a VIP being escorted to a safe area where he can’t possibly be targeted, hence the leaving behind of electronics.
Not to derail, but does anyone have any idea of what this actually means? I work with defense modeling and sims folks and I am an AI/ML person but whenever I hear the words AI Simulations I'm left scratching my head. Is this just making world sims for RL models? But then why would you be training an RL model to invade Taiwan? Simulations are generally done on big HPC rigs with tons of variables, ie. Finite Element Modeling. This isn't something that really benefits from neural nets. Maybe my technical classification is different than the non-technical, but this guy is supposedly some researcher I feel like the classification would be more precise.
Could be referring to AlphaGo, AlphaZero, and the follow ups of RL models that play Starcraft and other games, but moved to military scenarios. You would have one model invading Taiwan, the other model defending Taiwan, and they play each other. But of course you can’t train a model to defend Taiwan without training a model to invade Taiwan.
These fall into the RL side, specifically Model-based RL. The dirty open secret about model based RL is that the RL-policies(ml-models) trained are only as good as the sim-models (there are two types of "models" here that mean different things, smh...), they don't generalize well. So for the RL trained on Starcraft, it is also then tested on Starcraft, so good training results in good testing results. The major leap comes when you transfer it to a real world scenario, where it will not perform, because Starcraft is not a good model of the real world. Part of this is strictly technical, RL models/policies learn a mapping of states to actions, ie which action to take in a given state for the best reward now or in the future. The Starcraft world actions don't exist in reality. The models don't really learn high level tactics that can be extracted and re-used (unfortunately)
Modeling the real world with finite states is probably impossible. Near infinite/continuous states is going to be insanely hard to model, so if they are doing this, then good luck but it's a likely dead end.
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