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Right. I'm not making a moral argument here, but I am making a taxonomical one. Even if one thinks that locker rooms and domestic abuse shelters should discriminate on the basis of gender and not on the basis of sex, the two are obviously different. If normies don't distinguish between the two, then either they're all bisexual or have strong cognitive dissonance.
Or just think that trans women are (weird) men in dresses, as your 95 IQ redneck generally believes.
The logic of this position isn't founded on anything unstable.
It's not hard to build trans acceptance on an equally stable foundation though. It's not a popular move for TRAs, but I've always felt the "socially/legally adopted sex" model of transness is the way with the least problems, since it really doesn't commit one to any particular metaphysical view of transness, which can then be left as a matter of individual conscience. In a liberal democracy, that seems like a totally satisfactory way to deal with trans people.
It allows for "man" and "woman" to refer centrally to mature gametic males and females, and peripherally to those adopting the "socio-legal sex" of the same, the same way that "parent" refers centrally to biological parents, and peripherally to step-parents and adoptive parents.
Obviously there are differences between "adoptive sex" and "adoptive parenthood." First, the legal fiction of "adoptive parenthood" is justified by the good the parent does for the child and the benefit this provides society as a whole, while the legal fiction of "adoptive sex" would probably be best justified by a harm reduction model for the minority of dysphoric trans people (although I think a transhumanist or ultra-tolerant liberal perspective could also work in a pinch - I just doubt that that would be sufficiently popular with enough people to serve as a proper basis.)
The first-person psychology of the two is very different as well. An adoptive parent probably doesn't consider themselves a parent until after the legal process, whereas a trans person usually considers themselves to already be their identified sex before the law has recognized it.
But I don't think this model would be in any way "unstable" and it doesn't ask the 95 IQ redneck to believe any metaphysical propositions to strain credulity. It doesn't even commit us to maximal trans inclusion - we could have a legal fiction of adopted sex, and still distinguish between adoptive women and natal women where we consider it necessary for fairness or safety.
I appreciate the formulation but I think it has problems. The entirety of the reason it seems less controversial or imposing is because you aren't actually answering the policy questions that cause the debate to go red hot. It's essentially just responding 'no' to the "are trans women women?" question, so the super straight model but on all dimensions. On the other end it doesn't really buy the redneck anything at all either, it's just weird men in dresses that call themselves something different, maybe with some state enforced normalization. It only manages to be consistent by not actually engaging in all the places where other models bite bullets.
Can't the "bullet biting" just be done on a case by case basis? I see no issue with a negotiated settlement like:
Adding trans people to the list of protected classes in society, making it illegal to fire someone merely for being trans, or to deny them service on this basis.
Social transition allowed for minors, medical transition (including puberty blockers) banned or with many difficult hoops to obtain.
In public schools, trans minors participate on the sports team of their adoptive sex in non-contact, non-fighting sports. In fighting sports and contact sports, they participate with their natal sex.
For private sporting leagues, allow each league to judge for itself whether to be inclusive or exclusive.
Require all public schools and government buildings to have at least one unisex bathroom, and let private organizations do what they want regarding who can use what bathrooms. (Perhaps create standardized signage, or a sticker that can be used to let people know a bathroom is trans-inclusive or -exclusive.)
Keep all dangerous sex offenders, regardless of sex in male prisons.
Medical transition legal, but only covered under government healthcare for people with severe dysphoria. (Or limited to cost-effective options like hormone therapies.)
The issue is we then wrap around to these compromises not really being founded on a single coherent world model. The trans camp wants full social acknowledgement of their described reality, even the phrase "merely for being trans" falls apart if you don't agree that this is a thing someone can really be. It concedes the entire frame of the condition being a real thing, and any formulation that doesn't concede this would be unacceptable to the trans camp. It's an unstable equilibrium, once the foot is in the door on this stuff it's only a matter of time before sympathetic enough case in sympathetic enough jurisdiction erodes all of these compromises, the question will be asked "well are they women or not" and if you're not able to say "no" then none of these guardrails will survive scrutiny and if you are then they won't be acceptable to the trans camp.
You don't need to make it with reference to the condition - but to the legal status of being an adoptive man/woman.
That way, you can capture anti-trans discrimination either on the basis of natal sex, or legal sex. If an employer wouldn't fire someone for wearing a dress if they were a natal woman, they can't fire them if they wear a dress and are a legal woman. Etc., etc.
No need to acknowledge or favor anyone's version of reality. The "objective" legal reality of a person's recorded status becomes the basis for the discrimination claim.
I maintain it's only unstable because it is new. If the legislators craft a good enough foundation, there will be very little room for worrying about corner cases.
There is a debate now because the trans side is trying to frame it as all or nothing, but we can deal with things on an issue-by-issue basis or kick the issue to private groups or individuals to decide for themselves how they want to deal with things.
I think if the Federal government sets an example with how public schools and government buildings will be handled, as well as protecting against (at least) employment and housing discrimination, then we can leave it to states or private individuals to decide whether to have more protections than that. California and other Blue States could protect more, and more conservative states could be more restrictive anywhere not already covered by the Federal level.
I don't think this is really going to fool anyone.
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