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Notes -
This has resurfaced and been trending for a while
Currently at 42.1% red and 57.9% blue.
What would you choose? (See also r/slatestarcodex discussion)
I was motivated to post because I have a convincing argument for blue:
Stupid people will choose blue. You may not care about the disabled, elderly, generally moronic, etc. but this includes children and people who are "too generous": nice, but emotional, and devote their lives to charity
Thanos snapping a decent amount of the population (including random children, and biased towards selflessness) will probably overall negatively affect society
I probably won't die because most people choose blue, as evidenced by the poll. Even if I do, it may be preferable to living with the survivors (point #2)
Question as phrased, blue, because lots of people will look at that question and press blue.
More evil variant:
You are told that you will be presented with two buttons, one red and one blue. If you press the red button, you will survive and no additional people will be told about the buttons due to your actions. If you press the blue button, the question will be presented to two other random people in the world (unless no people remain who have not been asked the question). Once this process completes, the votes will be tallied. If strictly more than 50.0% of the people asked pressed blue, everyone survives. Otherwise, everyone who pressed blue dies.
What's the ethical thing to do here?
Red because most people won’t understand the question and will just hear “you will definitely survive” and “nobody you know and love will probably be in the 2 random people asked next”. The original question works ‘better’ because it’s more intuitively understood by the average 85 IQ human being on earth.
Alright, variant for you:
Instead of being drawn from the global population, additional people are drawn from the set of people who have ever argued with someone about (explicitly) decision theory on the internet.
(also, I think I found a situation where FDT performs worse than naive CDT - naive CDT + not arguing about decision theory will always achieve outcomes that are strictly not worse than FDT in this scenario)
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