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Notes -
Your Quarterly Ukraine War check-in
Three and a half months ago, we checked in on the war in Ukraine. That post was itself a check in to follow up on dire predictions from the pro-Russia posters in fall of 2025 that the loss of Pokrovsk was heralding the collapse of Ukrainian front lines and encirclement of Ukrainian troops. Amusingly, @No_one went back and deleted all of their posts after the last check in, so I can only leave you with this:
I expected the Iran war to be a major tailwind for Russia (oil prices, sanctions relief, US distraction) but on the contrary, the western information space seems to argue that things will remain stalemated for the foreseeable future. Ukraine seems to be pumping out drones (is this all that matters now?), and has started hitting Russian oil refineries. People have been hyping up what seems to be a mostly symbolic bombing of Moscow. The map hasn't moved, supposedly Russian recruitment is down. The Russian spring offensive has been underway for several weeks and made no progress:
On the flip side, people write articles about how bad the Russian economy is, and then drop this line near the end:
I'd be interested to hear whether anyone has insight into the rhetoric on the Russian side or the pro-Russian perspective at the moment.
So - any new/modified predictions? We had @ABigGuy4U saying collapse in July-August (still a few months to go), @Lizzardspawn saying to look at the frequency of blackouts in Kiev (still unchanged at 6-8 hours a day afaict).
One of the best reddit accounts covering the war is /u/Duncan-M (who also has a substack). He has little bias and thus gets shit from the pro-UA and pro-RU cheerleaders in about equal measure.
Anyways the recent updates are that SpaceX disabled Starlink for the Russians, which they somehow were dependent on, thus heavily disrupting their comms system, enabling Ukrainian advances. The war is more drone heavy than ever, and fast unjammable comms are a must have to coordinate attacks.
In addition, previously Ukrainian recon drones were limited to about 10km past the FLOT (forward line of own troops) due to counter-drone AD, but have been able to penetrate past this, enabling reconnaissance and deep strikes into the Russian logistical rear.
This is not to imply that the Ukrainian manpower crisis has subsided, because it hasn't, especially since General 200 is busy plugging away with "Assault Forces" (ie Meat) as per Soviet doctrine. But it's less relevant than ever. In conclusion:
What about an an autonomous AI advantage? Ukraine getting some western tech that's allowing independent identification and targeting of designated targets?
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