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Can anyone explain to me this chain of Trump primary victories? Normally I find myself pretty in the loop and things make sense, but I'm having trouble here. Trump as we all know has approval ratings in the doldrums and that extends even to a decent amount of historical loyalist, electorally - recent surveys show his endorsement is a drag in general elections in battlefield states. He also has a mixed at best record of picking primary winners. Yet he's scored several notable wins recently.
He has endorsed former Texas AG Paxton (and dogged by significant simmering corruption allegations), endangering the Texas Senate seat and going against sitting incumbent Sen. Cornyn. His pick for Kentucky Senate seat won the primary despite opposition from both Rep. Massie and retiring incumbent Sen. McConnell (notably, opposite wings of the party despite being somewhat anti-Trump). Rep Massie himself, they are reporting, has lost a primary as well (the most expensive House primary in history, in fact, drawing both Trump and AIPAC opposition) despite drawing support from other somewhat Trump-skeptic but influential right-wingers such as Tucker Carlson, MTG, and Boebert. Trump-opposed incumbent Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy finished third and didn't even make the runoff. In Georgia, perennial enemy (of 2020 election fame) Brad Raffensperger lost the primary for governor. Trump even took out five state senators in Indiana merely over their refusal to jump in the redistricting fight!
So why amid generalized disaster is Trump scoring so many primary victories?
I’m not generally in favor of Trump’s policies, but even for me a lot of the appeal is he actually does things. Even when I disagree, the temptation he gives is exactly that unlike typical political figures, Trump is doing pretty much what he says he wants to do. With the anti-Trump crowd, what’s missing is exactly that. They say they want something like lower housing costs or lower inflation or more good jobs in their area. And nothing happens. I am worried about affordable housing, inflation, good jobs, etc. but nobody is doing anything. It’s all the usual suspects making officially concerned faces and telling me they “care deeply” while inflation goes up, most people who don’t already own a house are probably never going to be able to buy one, jobs aren’t getting better. Why, given the choice between a Trumper who is endorsed by the guy doing things about problems the GOP base cares about, or yet another do nothing glad hander would a supporter of the GOP choose the latter?
As someone with mild technocratic leanings, I think there's a pretty good case to be made that establishment figures do "do things", but the timescales of these actions don't fit with what the populace idealizes them to be. Trump is in this sense accurately depicted as a monkey who wants what he wants right now, and commits stupid mistakes due to this impatience, which is not a virtue but a weakness. And catnip to GOP voters, I think, that they will regret. Most politicians aren't willing to make stupid decisions for temporary electoral success and that's a good thing.
As an example, inflation and housing costs which you brought up. These things very patently cannot be driven down by quick actions, try as you might. One of the most effective tools according to many is zoning policy, and zoning policy has a very strong inbuilt "lag" in how it affects things. For example, a bureaucrat in Florida where I used to live made a law that any apartment building over 3 stories must have an elevator. Notably, any apartment building two stories or less also doesn't require fancy fire-suppression systems. Small rules! Not one that the electorate notice! But fast-forward a decade or two and there is a very characteristic and specific mix and ratio of designs and setups for 2- and 3-story apartment buildings that anyone will notice and has a massive impact you cannot possibly understate on housing affordability and living patterns.
As a trivial and overdone example but one that is nonetheless true, Trump has probably singlehandedly and directly contributed to inflation I suspect on a similar order as the first Covid bailout bill simply due to rising gas prices and their knock-on effects attributable to his Iran adventure. If this is "doing things" I don't want it and I suspect the general populace won't either. I absolutely hate the popular idea of "low-information voters" (I think people are way smarter than they are given credit for even if some of this processing is subconscious and shows up in aggregate only) but in this limited sense I kind of do think it applies to GOP primary voters who are temporarily and aberrantly distracted by shiny "does things" that they might not (yet) realize the backside of it.
Maybe I'm provably wrong here but the upshot of the comments here seems to me to be something along those lines. I guess a somewhat testable point is maybe the next cycle of primaries in 2 years, if not the current generals, but we'll see.
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This reads as totally insane to me. A lot of the reason I hate Trump is he actually does things that make everything worse. I would gladly take a president that maintained basically the status quo of Biden and does nothing else over Trump.
He actually did a thing in starting this war in Iran, shutting the Strait of Hormuz which was previously open and has no clear sign of re-opening in its prior state. Almost everything that matters in life is downstream of energy, including ability to build houses, which will now be more expensive. We're draining munition stockpiles that were meant to be for a possible conflict with China, leaving us worse off on that front.
He has normalized pay-to-play by cutting bespoke deals with companies that donate to his causes (ballroom, etc.), and before you say all presidents are corrupt, I would say 1.) yes and 2.) this is a level far, far worse than others.
He actually implemented his signature policy of tariffs, which has also made many things more expensive, not even brought back manufacturing to the US, and ripped up trade situations with allies that were mutually beneficial.
Speaking of allies, Trump has actually fucked up our intelligence and military relationships with them, which all Americans benefitted from and which will take decades to rebuild.
The US is far worse off now precisely because Trump actually does things.
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