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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 25, 2026

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I think you are correct, and that the fertility rates have fallen because people's preference for children has declined. What is more interesting is why their preference declined.

As a simple model, this is wrong. The driver of falling fertility we don't really see is an increase in voluntary DINKdom.

What we do see is smaller families (and in particular 2 instead of 3+) among couples who do have kids - and per surveys most of the 3->2 shift feels involuntary - and (since 2014 or so) reduced coupling.

The vast majority of people still want marriage and children, and the vast majority of them will have at least one child if they find themselves with a biologically suitable partner. There is not a large number of people who want a childless marriage, and no evidence that this number has increased. It is possible that there has been an increase in the number of people who want neither marriage nor children, but anecdotally most of the increase in singleness is involuntary due to FUBAR dating markets. We don't know how many people want children without marriage because it isn't (for good reasons) an available option for the social classes with the intelligence and conscientiousness for what they want to affect their behaviour.

The other thing that has changed is the perceived marginal cost of an additional child in a 2+ child family.

The focus of this report is a lot narrower than the previous one which means there are fewer fun takeaways. Two facts stand out. There's been a lot of speculation about coupling not working, people delaying childrearing so they are unable to get that third child, et cetera, but the report doesn't bear any of these concerns out. Men and women are still moving in together, but the major driver of the decline is that there's a growing cohort in which the couple never decides to have kids. A lot of DINK-couple (Double Income, No Kids) are no longer as eager to become DICKs (Double Income, Couple o' Kids) as they used to be.

https://www.themotte.org/post/3555/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/410740?context=8#context