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birb_cromble  3d ago (text post)   725 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread (without clever alliteration)

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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There's definitely some fuckery afoot. The NASDAQ 100 is changing specifically to allow SpaceX to list early and the S&P is "considering it". The NASDAQ 100 specifically is pretty bad because they don't float adjust their holdings. On top of that, SpaceX has an unusual lockout structure that lets holders unload early.

Beyond that, the share voting structure is fairly unique. Musk holds a special share of stock that has 10x voting power, so you're never going to have input as a minority owner.

Per their S-1, SpaceX's only profitable line of business is starlink, and starlink may only be profitable because they're booking many of its costs to the rocket division. Even if they aren't, we're starting to see competition that will hurt those numbers. Their other lines of business are not profitable - xAI, in particular, is nothing but a highly efficient money incinerator at this point. One of their biggest revenue lines is renting hardware to Anthropic.

Altogether, this IPO looks almost custom-designed to leave excitable retail investors holding the bag.

Altogether, this IPO looks almost custom-designed to leave excitable retail investors holding the bag.

I'm not concerned as much with excitable retail investors as I am boring folks like myself with lots of ETFs tied to indices.

If you're holding a lot of QQQ, you might want to consider your risk tolerance.

Morningstar is not bullish.

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