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Sure. But we can pretty confidently say that smoking increases your chances of getting cancer versus the counterfactual. Putting your life savings on black doesn't guarantee that you'll lose them, but I'm pretty comfortable saying that you're informed that it's a possibility. Arguing against this feels like sophistry.
Probably.
Based on the number of societies in human history doing absolutely heinous shit and considering it to be normal or even moral, I'm not sure about this. In fact I suspect there's very few societies that don't involve something I consider horrifically evil until fairly recently. And even then I'm not sure.
Unclear. I'm pretty confident that good things happen to bad people and bad things happen to good people. Perhaps there is a settling of accounts in the hereafter, but that's the whole question, isn't it?
Why would you expect a human society to not feature heinous evil? Why would humans frequently engaging in heinous evil reduce your confidence that Evil exists as a useful concept and is recognizable by humans?
Obviously.
Can we confidently say that evil leads to misery, and good leads to happiness, even if this is not the case in every microscopic section of the causal chain that we can directly observe, yes?
@Jiro
I am asking for a recognition that some kinds of things are in fact evil, not an agreement of any particular religion's listing of what those things are.
For the things you recognize as evil, what makes them evil? What does it mean for a thing to be evil?
The point is that saying you've "chosen" to "separate from God" is a cheat, since you can't meaningfully "choose" something you don't know about. If some things are recognizeable as evil, but others aren't, that doesn't help the argument unless only the recognizeable things are said to be "choices". No version of Christianity that claims you "chose" to go to Hell limits it to things that I can actually recognize are evil.
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People doing heinous stuff and considering it morally acceptable pretty directly implies that people have difficulty recognizing good and evil. Either that, or they are right and I'm having difficulty. Not looking good either way for this argument.
I think doing evil to those who can retaliate or doing evil that others recognize as evil (thus leading to some kind of retaliation) can result in misery. You can do all the evil you want to everyone else with no obvious result in misery as far as I can tell, at least as long as you don't see what you do as evil yourself.
I don't have a totally complete moral framework, but I sort of operate off a mishmash of utilitarianism and virtue ethics. So an evil act is one that is not virtuous or leads to an overall decrease in welfare.
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