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Notes -
Deal reached to end Iran war
Details of the deal are not publicly available right now. However, Trump has authorised an end to the US naval blockade, and Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait.
Not surprisingly though, Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and refuses to cede lands seized in southern Lebanon.
But MORE surprisingly, Trump actually reprimanded Bibi.
So it seems we were lucky to return to the pre-war status quo, even Trump had to tepidly admit that he bit off more than he can chew and Iran's regional dominance is not going anywhere.
So nobody knows what really happened, but at least we're having fun.
Does anybody else remember our discussions from a few months ago? Because what's been reported so far looks nothing like what many confidently predicted back then. Iran closing the strait would lead to massive energy spikes that would cripple the global economy and America would rush to surrender. And Iran would win on all points. Iran's nuclear program would continue uninterrupted. Iran's neighbors would be cowed into submission. Many people speculated that Iran would soon sink American ships, or innocent oil tankers, and that nobody would be able to stop them.
In fact, Iran's power was so strong that they would be able to toll the straits of Hormuz. Iran would be stronger than ever.
That seems to not have happened.
Likewise, the global energy crisis has not materialized. Where I live gas is about a buck-and-a-quarter more expensive than it was before the war. Plane tickets are more expensive and fertilizer costs have gone up. But, otherwise, nothing continues to happen. And America did not rush to surrender.
In fact, curiously, Iran is apparently giving up their greatest leverage by opening the straits. Why would they do that? We have heard that nobody can take the straits back from them, so why are they ceding it?
The terms now called losing terms were winning terms a few months ago: America bombed Iran, decapitated its leadership, destroyed the bulk of its capacity to manufacture missiles and drones, and will suffer no lasting consequences. The Straits, apparently, will be opened and a ceasefire will be maintained.
The questions now are whether this can be turned into a longer-lasting and more regional peace, and what will become of Iran's nuclear dust. (Not that they can do much with it, because we destroyed the nuclear facilities they would need to use it.) Trump, at least, is pushing to expand the Abraham Accords and lock the entire region into a broader framework for peace. Which doesn't sound like a loss of American prestige to me.
Of course it's possible that fighting will break out again or that the deal will not be as reported.
But wasn't America supposed to have lost?
I mostly remember the opposite from the time when the war just started: that Iran is doomed, that either regime collapses or the country is thrown back into the stone age and balkanized, that it shouldn't have messed with The Hegemon, that the US armed forces are unstoppable and nearly invincible.
US armed forces were unstoppable have been basically invincible: we destroyed the bulk of Iran's military industrial complex, we can intercept most of their missiles and rockets at any time, we destroyed their drone facilities, we sank most of their navy, and we killed their leaders; America has suffered 13 casualties; one plane was hit by Iranian fire and famously landed safely; another plane was destroyed and the pilot ejected, which lead to a now-famous mission where American forces intercepted him in hostile territory and built a runway to get him out without anyone being detected or killed. That is as invincible as invincible gets.
Godzilla destroys Tokyo and scratches his paw.
The only reason we didn't throw Iran back into the stone age is that we chose not to: Trump did not initiate Bridge and Power Plant Day. The only reason Iran didn't sink American ships and destroy American planes is that they can't.
Despite Air Force leadership fighting against it for at least a generation now, this incident probably spells the end of new air combat abilities with flight crews. If you're just flying around a bomb truck, modern technology will let you fly it from a trailer in Nevada, without the risk to service members and taxpayer-funded materiel to do rescue missions.
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