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Notes -
Two things:
Something was clearly working to some degree, what exactly was unclear. Was it culture? Was it the social safety net? Was it the lower housing costs compared to income? Was it a bit of everything? Who knows.
It is a bit curious that the fertility collapse coincided with the proliferation of smartphones though, but it also coincided with a massive financial crisis and rapidly rising housing costs as well.
The safety nets still exist. Maybe they do have some effect. It makes sense that people wouldn't want children without the means to properly care for them. However, if money was the main reason then fertility rates in Scandinavia would not be as low as they are since the safety nets still exist.
Or they had an effect until something changed in the 2010s.
One materialist explanation is that this has to do with housing, which has increased by some 5-600%, which the safety nets don't help with at all unless you're truly destitute.
Or there is a non-materialist explanation. Or some combination.
This is kind of like saying the house collapsed because there was a stronger than normal wind. I mean, sure, that may be the proximate cause, and if the wind were a little lighter that day then the house would not have collapsed. But, fundamentally, the problem is not really the wind but the extremely poorly built and fragile house. Until yesterday, human fertility rates were incredibly robust across time and place under myriad different circumstances such that everyone agreed that overpopulation was an impending catastrophe, but then suddenly it all collapsed because the wind changed direction.
Most of these policy wonk discussions set the implicit frame as "the last domino fell, so how do we prop it back up?".
I don't think so. Housing is by orders of magnitude the biggest expense of a person's life. It has also tracked wage and inflation as far back as we have kept track but suddenly 30 years ago it started rapidly decoupling from wage growth and inflation.
If this didn't start breaking things then that would be a far bigger surprise than if it did.
It didn't start breaking things. It doesn't even correlate.
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