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Notes -
BBC Reporting
Breaking As Donald Trump has been speaking, senior US officials have been briefing reporters about the deal with Iran.
The BBC was part of that meeting. Here are some key points from the 14-paragraph agreement:
Fighting ends - Lebanon included: The deal declares the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon"
Final deal in 60 days: "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent"
US naval blockade ends: The US will remove its naval blockade of Iran within 30 days. "During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran". Also, the US "further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal"
Strait of Hormuz reopens: The key waterway will remain toll-free for 60 days, and then, a senior official says, "Iran will work not just with Oman but with the Gulf states to set up a broader agreement, a longer term agreement on the Strait of Hormuz"
$300bn for Iran development: The US undertakes with regional partners to develop a fund of at least $300bn (£224bn) "for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran"
All sanctions lifted: The US "undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran", with a schedule to be agreed
No nuclear weapon for Iran: The US and Iran agree that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and they will work together on removing Iran's enriched nuclear material through "blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA"
[End Quote]
I should note for anyone that wants to dispute this, I first saw the breaking report on CNBC who said only that the version they were read basically resembled the previous "leaked" reporting except that there was a specification that the enriched material would be disposed of, at minimum by dilution under supervision within Iran.
So, this seems to be it, unless there's secret clauses more favorable to the USA or you think the State Department lied to reporters.
The original American goals for the war were, as I recall and I don't mean to call anyone out so I'm not hunting for citations to arguments from months ago, correct me if I'm missing any:
-- Regime Change: Nowhere close. Very, very conditional surrender. Probably further away than ever, though I think sanctions relief probably weakens the regime rather than strengthens it.
-- Forcing Iran to Abandon Proxies: Actually significantly worse off than before the war, as the agreement essentially requires and legitimizes the idea that Hezbollah is an area of interest and control for Iran. Iran is allowed to ask for this unrelated conflict to stop, and they're expected to control Hezbollah to prevent recurrence.
-- Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program: It does seem that the HEU will be neutralized, so chalk up a win here, but it's unclear how the overall nuclear program will be impacted. Iran does not seem to be giving up its right to enrich uranium. The vow to not build a nuclear weapon isn't worth a bucket of warm spit, and at any rate they had already made the same statement publicly on multiple occasions.
In addition to whatever the overall costs of the war are, fiscal and moral, Iran is coming out of this getting:
-- Complete sanctions relief. Iran is already getting waivers to sell oil through the blockade immediately, and will receive complete sanctions relief. I expected most of this, more or less, when the first peace proposals were released by each side and you could see the middle ground forming. But complete sanctions relief? That's unbelievable. I think it's a good thing for America to do sanctions never succeed in regime change in third world countries they only have any impact inasmuch as the people targeted think of themselves as first worlders. Maybe this won't happen, the USA is framing it as pay-for-performance on Iran's obligations, but it's crazy this is even on the table.
-- $300bn in reconstruction financing. The fund will likely be structured in such a way that Trump can claim no US taxpayer dollars went into it, or consist of loans such that it's not "giving" Iran $300bn dollars, or be restricted in how it's spent so that it can be framed as humanitarian aid, but let's be honest amongst ourselves: Iran is getting $300bn in reparations out of this. We're paying Iran to stop the war, or at best we are pressuring the Gulf States to do so.
-- Protection for Hezbollah and a recognition of Iran's role as their patron internationally.
The Strait talk is still in the air, some reporting makes it seem like the strait will be toll-free for 60 days, indicating it may not be toll-free afterward. Other sources indicate that it must be toll-free forever. We'll have to see. Personally I suspect there will be a small "environmental impact fee" assessed on every oil tanker passing through the strait, and both sides will claim victory.
So, like, by the terms set at the start, it doesn't seem that the United States achieved most of its objectives. Maybe the nuclear issue will be achieved in some way, but the program itself has not been dismantled unless, as JD has said on The View, you like the new Iranians better than the old Iranians.
For what it's worth, I think it's good policy today to sign the deal. I even think the overall terms of the deal can be a net victory for the United States.
When you're in a hole, stop digging. There was almost no chance of achieving any of those objectives through the course of the war by continuing the bombings. Trump is now saying, publicly, that within a few weeks the oil reserves were going to run out and everything was going to go haywire economically.
And removal of sanctions is a Good Thing full stop. Sanctions do not work to change regimes, they work to punish populations. We can ruin some French Judge's life for ruling against Israel, but we can't force Putin to leave Ukraine and we can't remove the Ayatollahs. Make Iran rich, tie it into the global economy, and they have something to lose in a future conflict.
These claims would be meaningful since they're coming from the US and seem to represent some major concessions. But Trump has in typical fashion said that some aspects of the deal, such as the 300bn reconstruction plan, are not real. So despite all this information coming out we are sadly not that much further along from where we started. Trump seems perfectly willing to flaunt his executive authority over anything, and the republicans seem to have no capability to rein him in.
That being said, the 300bn might just be a negotiating tactic. A giant carrot that Trump can chop up as needed. But as you detail, the rest of the deal is hardly a win for the US either so...
On the flipside there is no telling what is going on in Iran right now. The Americans manipulating their own markets whilst getting lost in their own fog of war has been shielding the Iranians from making any definitive decisions. I mean, it's not hard to imagine some Shia hardliners salivating over the potential economic turmoil that could be unleashed if the strait remains closed. Militant factions within Iran might see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity. Perhaps there is still chance for the Iran regime to tear itself apart over the deal, and we can all declare Trump the greatest president in US history. But that's wild speculation.
The only clear signal coming out of all of this is from the zionists. They are not happy. And it's easy to see why. It begins years ago with zionists railing against the JCPOA. The Republicans along with Trump tear the deal to pieces as zionist strategy dictates. They then attack Iran. Now we are here and regardless of how one imagines the war effort went, we are looking at a negotiation that begins with terms so much more favorable for Iran than the JCPOA ever was that one has to wonder: What was the meaning of all of this? What did anyone ever expect to gain? Was this all just a half court hail Mary throw to win the game with 30 minutes left on the clock like we're in some Disney movie? No really, what is this? I'm so confused.
Israel realized that they are going to disappear within the next 50 to 100 years and are trying to make every big play available to them.
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