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Notes -
Mortgage lending is important. But there's a distinction between lending for new builds to expand supply and foster development vs fuelling property bubbles and land speculation. It's not impossible to make houses cheaply - financial resources could be directed to replicate the postwar baby boom era of cheap housing and industrial development. That's how it happened in the first place, financial repression and capital controls. Credit was directed into creating new housing stock.
This doesn't happen naturally. It is often more profitable to buy houses in desirable areas since they're not making any more land. Elastic credit, inelastic supply - prices rise. It can be a lot 'safer' than lending to industry, from the perspective of the bank. If a business fails the money can be lost, whereas you can always repossess a house.
In 17 advanced economies, the share of mortgage loans in banks' total lending portfolios roughly doubled over the past century from 30% in 1900 to about 60% in 2014. More productive industrial investment has been crowded out.
It does happen naturally. It DID happen naturally. Well, sort of; the timing was partly because of relaxation of capital controls forbidding mortgage lenders from lending for development. But that relaxation happened because the time was right and the lobbyists were called in to remove the obstacle. The banks wanted to lend for development (because they could see the wave of demand coming), but were prevented, until they had the laws changed.
The banks also wanted to lend during the early-2000s bubble. After the bubble, housing has been durably repressed, but this isn't for lack of funds; the US is awash in funds. It's because the reaction to suburbia, the New Urban anti-sprawl smart-growth people, who had been on the back foot for a long time, were able to use the housing crash to get the upper hand politically, which they still have.
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