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I don't think the Steelers would have taken Sorsby, and I don't understand why you think he would be the answer at QB. If he were some superstar, maybe, but he was projected as a third round pick if he had decided to enter the draft this year, which puts him in the same league as Allar and Mason Rudolph. The problem I have with Willis is that the guy made 3 starts in 2 years and everyone started acting like he had potential that he hadn't shown at all when he was in Tennessee. It's almost as like he had such a reputation for being bad that when he came in and wasn't terrible everyone was impressed and subsequently overrated him.
Cleveland, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Carolina, Arizona, both New York teams, Tennessee, and until recently, Detroit and Buffalo have all been consistently terrible long enough to draft several top prospects, with nothing to show for it. Even New England, who rebounded relatively quickly after the Brady era, took two tries to get it right. The last time, technically speaking, that a team sucked and drafted a top QB prospect who won a Super Bowl for them was, well, the Steelers, when they won with Roethlisberger in 2009. If you loosen this definition a bit you can bump it up a few years to 2012, though Eli Manning was technically acquired via trade. Going back to the Super Bowl winners since then:
If you include Super Bowl losers than you're going to find a lot more guys from the top of the draft, but that's besides the point. Teams can easily acquire their starter via trade, free agency, through lower round selections, or through trading up. While we're here, let's look at QBs drafted in the top 10 during that period, excluding the past couple years:
Of the 21 guys on this list, only 5 (Goff, Luck, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert) would be obvious improvements over what the Steelers had the past several years. Tannehill and Mayfield are maybes. Anyone else would be a bust in Pittsburgh. I can only imagine what Steelers fans would say if we got a top pick and spent it on a guy like Tua or Zach Wilson. But the best examples for comparison are the Bengals and Chargers. Bengals first. It's a really easy comparison to make since they play in the same division. In the six years since Burrow has been in the league, the Steelers have finished ahead of the Bengals 4 times while the Bengals have bested the Steelers only twice. We can put an asterisk next to 2020 since Burrow was a rookie, but even in the contemporary era of complaining about the Steelers it's still a 3–2 advantage. And the Steelers have done better lately as well, with Cincy having missed the playoffs for three seasons and counting. This is not a team that is in a better position than the Steelers.
The Chargers, though, are an even better comparison, because they're an example of a similarly situated team that did absolutely everything people said the Steelers should have been doing over that period. They were a team that was good on paper but managed to disappoint with a lot of flukey close losses, and they unepectedly ended up with a low draft pick. With Rivers exiting, they spent it on a QB who lived up to the hype, and eventually dumped their coach as well. They have a good young QB, a decent core, and a hip young offensive-minded coach. They proceed to make the playoffs three out of the next six seasons, losing in the first round every time. Two of those appearances come after firing the hip young coach and replacing him with an old guy who believes in team defense and running the ball. It's not too hard to imagine an alternate universe where the Chargers have a decent 2019 and, following Ben's injury and the loss of the killer Bs, the team finishes 5–11 and management decides that with a guy like Herbert available it's time for a rebuild. Tomlin is let go, Ben throws a tantrum and gets sold for scrap (he is about the same age as Rivers), and they hire an "innovative" wunderkind as head coach. In 2020, 7–9 is an improvement, 9–8 in 2021 is even better, and in 2022 they actually have a winning season and make the playoffs, and though they lose in the first round, they're improving, and this is what progress looks like. Until they have another 5 win season the following year and they hire a Tomlin clone to get the team back on track an consistently have 10 or 11 win seasons and early playoff exits. And everyone talks about how they really righted the ship.
This is what pisses me off about the constant bitching about the Steelers of the past 5 or 6 years. Yes, is disappointing when you make the playoffs 5 out of 6 years and get blown out in the first round every time. But it's better when making the playoffs at all is considered an improvement.
IMO your data on where QB are drafted is dated. The last 5-8 years of drafts we’ve seen many more QB draft classes clustered with picks 1,2,3 QB if teams like them. And picks 8-20 be true second tier prospects. Good prospects are getting pushed higher up the board. Mahomes, Allen, Ben types aren’t going pick 10 anymore.
Willis is an example of a QB that needed time to develop. His traits are absolutely elite - rocket arm, 4.4 ‘40, Motte poster level Wonderlich score and IQ definitely matters at the QB position. Some reason he only played at Liberty University. Willis was bad in the NFL because he played as a rookie at Liberty which is a giant competition jump.
Elite Traits + 4 years development + 4 good NFL games is 100% an interesting background to bet on. And for the same money as Rodgers.
Steelers have 0% probability of getting a top 3 pick and a shot at a clean QB prospect.
Sorsby had a good shot at going first round this year and most draft prognosticators have him as a top 15 pick without the gambling next year. Not a third round guy. Allar with slightly worse arm, better tape, and far better legs.
I don’t bitch about the Steelers. A lot is well run. It’s just they need to take bigger variance risks to find a QB.
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