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This Week in Gambling
The Brendan Sorsby drama is the gift that keeps on giving, especially among those of us who feel that sports gambling in its current incarnation is a scourge on the athletic world. For those of you who haven't been following, Sorsby is a college football quarterback who began his career with the Indiana Hoosiers before transferring to Cincinnati and becoming their primary starter. Following good seasons in 2024 and 2025, he transferred again in January, this time to Texas Tech. Cincinnati then sued him over an alleged $1 million buyout clause in his NIL deal, which he refused to pay. This would have been nothing more than a minor sideshow except on March 11, the NCAA received a tip from law enforcement about suspected gambling activity, and the following month, Texas Tech was notified that an investigation was taking place. As the NFL Draft took place the last weekend in April, Sorsby was checking into a residential treatment facility for gambling addiction, and the gambling allegations were made public. Over a four year period beginning when he was a redshirt freshman at Indiana in 2022, Sorsby had made over $90,000 in bets, including bets involving his own team, and had others place bets for him when he was prevented from doing so because of either age or being in a state where gambling was prohibited. In the latter case, he had others place over $5,000 worth of bets for him outside the state of Texas, where sports betting is illegal. Keep in mind he had only been in Texas since January.
The timing of the investigation frustrated Sorsby's desire to play in 2026, as challenging an unfavorable determination would require an antitrust suit that wouldn't be resolved by the start of the season. On May 18, he preemptively sued the NCAA, seeking an injunction and a declaratory judgment that they had no power to suspend him. That same day, the NCAA ruled him ineligible for the upcoming season. Texas Tech was initially supportive of Sorsby and made excuses for him: That sports betting is a growing problem among young men, that he completed his treatment program (which evidently didn't last very long), that there should be discipline, but that he shouldn't have his life destroyed over the matter. Sorsby himself made excuses, saying that betting on Indiana as a redshirt made him feel more connected to his team and having a real stake in the games, as if being on the team wasn't enough. Texas Tech ruled him ineligible, but said they would work on reinstating him before the season started.
On June 8, the district court issued an injunction preventing the NCAA sanctions from taking effect, and the reaction from the college football world was severe. The school's conference, the Big 12, made noises about possibly putting their own sanctions on Texas Tech if they allowed Sorsby to play. Scheduled opponents suggested they would simply forfeit their games in the absence of any other action. Ken Paxton warned the Big 12 that the state of Texas viewed any meddling by the conference as an antitrust violation and that they could expect to be sued if they took any action. AGs from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Utah responded that they would back the Big 12 in any lawsuit. The Big 12 then sued Texas Tech preemptively, seeking a declaratory judgment that they had the right to impose their own sanctions. Realizing his quest to play was futile, Sorsby withdrew his lawsuit on June 15 and announced that he intended to participate in the NFL Supplemental Draft.
The Supplemental Draft stems from an odd corner of the Collective Bargaining Agreement and provides an alternative to the regular draft for players who intended to play college football and accordingly missed the filing deadline. Historically, these reasons included things like being declared academically ineligible and graduating early, and occasionally involved NCAA sanctions stemming from activity that's banned in college but is okay everywhere else, like hiring an agent or accepting money from a booster. It's not held every year, and some years when it is held don't result in any players being taken. When it is held, there are usually only one or two players involved, and it's been nearly a decade since anyone of note was selected in one. It operates through a byzantine process where teams are divided into tranches based on the prior year's record and teams within each tranche bid draft picks for the player, and if he isn't selected the next tranche has a shot. So say the first tranche includes Miami at 4 and Washington at 6. If Miami bids a 6th round pick and Washington a 5th rounder, Washington gets the player for bidding higher and forfeits their 5th round pick in the following year's entry draft in exchange. If both teams bid 6th round picks then Miami get the player in exchange for a 6th rounder, etc. If nobody in the first tranche bids then the second tranche has a shot, then the third, then it's over.
The topic of the supplemental draft actually came up as early as April, as Sorsby's agent indicated that it was an option if he didn't get to play for Texas Tech, and that he had inquired about the process with the NFL. With the application deadline of June 22 looming and the college situation looking increasingly dim, the NFL route looked like the best shot. Within hours of announcing Sorsby's intent to pursue a pro career, his agent was telling media that he had already received calls from 26 teams. He scheduled a pro day for July 10, days before the CBA-mandated supplemental draft deadline of July 16. He claimed that all 32 teams would be in attendance. Yesterday, this whole facade came crashing down. In a sternly-worded letter, from the league's General Counsel, the NFL informed Sorsby that they would not be holding a supplemental draft this year. It is so good it's worth quoting in its entirety, as no summary could do it justice:
The reaction from Sorsby's attorney was that the decision violates the CBA and that he was taking the matter up with the NFLPA, but it isn't clear that the union intends to do anything. As he's not on a team, Sorsby isn't entitled to any representation, and even if he were, the CBA leaves the decision to have a supplemental dragt entirely at the discretion of the league (something tells me that this isn't often a point of contention).
While it is, in a sense, satisfying to see an entitled prick like Sorsby get his comeuppance, in another sense this only kicks the can down the road. Remember, the judge originally granted a preliminary injunction, meaning that his lawsuit had a good chance of succeeding, or at least the judge thought it did. College athletics has become such a mess that at this point I believe that the house must be burned down to kill the cockroaches, and a court ruling that the NCAA had no power to declare a player ineligible for one of the two cardinal sins of athletics (the other being PED use) is tantamount to saying that they have no power at all. The Big 12 suit would have resolved questions of whether conferences had the power to enforce their own restrictions. Texas Tech winning every game by forfeit would have created an unusual situation where the team technically has a good record despite not playing, or only playing only jobbers. What if the Big 12 had lost their lawsuit, and the only meaningful game Tech played all year was in the conference championship, where they got steamrolled by, I don't know, BYU? The worst thing that could have happened to college football right now was a pyrrhic victory that convinced the casual fan that the sport wasn't a total farce, and this was it. Even Indiana's championship this year wasn't as feel-good as it seems, because that only happened because a large booster base allowed Cignetti to basically throw money at players. I don't want to pretend that the old system was equitable, even going back to the 1960s or earlier when things were supposedly pure, but in recent years things have only gotten worse. I'm not under any impression that college football will ever operate the way I'd like it to—even proposed congressional intervention only seems aimed at reinstating the shitty pre-NIL status quo—but the only chance of getting there is if the sport manages to destroy itself in spectacular fashion.
I wanted the Steelers to take Sorsby in the supplemental draft. But I doubt they would have and instead will be floating in the our QB isn’t good enough to win a championship land. Also wanted them to sign Willis. They seem very reluctant to take the kind of risks you need to in order of finding a top 10 QB. Allar has potential with all the physical traits but he’s still a developmental QB who had bad coaching at PSU so maybe there is a 25% chance it all comes together. That is just not enough risks to take at a position like that. And they refuse to be bad enough to get a top 5 pick where you can land a great prospect. Which you can’t get to trading up if you start at pick 20. So they will end up drafting the 4th best QB in a strong QB class who generally has a major flaw.
Kalshi just raised at $40b valuation or half of CME. I wouldn’t invest because gambling has two bad business traits - there are a lot of firms competing and my vote in our Democracy would be to regulate it out of existence.
I don't think the Steelers would have taken Sorsby, and I don't understand why you think he would be the answer at QB. If he were some superstar, maybe, but he was projected as a third round pick if he had decided to enter the draft this year, which puts him in the same league as Allar and Mason Rudolph. The problem I have with Willis is that the guy made 3 starts in 2 years and everyone started acting like he had potential that he hadn't shown at all when he was in Tennessee. It's almost as like he had such a reputation for being bad that when he came in and wasn't terrible everyone was impressed and subsequently overrated him.
Cleveland, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Carolina, Arizona, both New York teams, Tennessee, and until recently, Detroit and Buffalo have all been consistently terrible long enough to draft several top prospects, with nothing to show for it. Even New England, who rebounded relatively quickly after the Brady era, took two tries to get it right. The last time, technically speaking, that a team sucked and drafted a top QB prospect who won a Super Bowl for them was, well, the Steelers, when they won with Roethlisberger in 2009. If you loosen this definition a bit you can bump it up a few years to 2012, though Eli Manning was technically acquired via trade. Going back to the Super Bowl winners since then:
If you include Super Bowl losers than you're going to find a lot more guys from the top of the draft, but that's besides the point. Teams can easily acquire their starter via trade, free agency, through lower round selections, or through trading up. While we're here, let's look at QBs drafted in the top 10 during that period, excluding the past couple years:
Of the 21 guys on this list, only 5 (Goff, Luck, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert) would be obvious improvements over what the Steelers had the past several years. Tannehill and Mayfield are maybes. Anyone else would be a bust in Pittsburgh. I can only imagine what Steelers fans would say if we got a top pick and spent it on a guy like Tua or Zach Wilson. But the best examples for comparison are the Bengals and Chargers. Bengals first. It's a really easy comparison to make since they play in the same division. In the six years since Burrow has been in the league, the Steelers have finished ahead of the Bengals 4 times while the Bengals have bested the Steelers only twice. We can put an asterisk next to 2020 since Burrow was a rookie, but even in the contemporary era of complaining about the Steelers it's still a 3–2 advantage. And the Steelers have done better lately as well, with Cincy having missed the playoffs for three seasons and counting. This is not a team that is in a better position than the Steelers.
The Chargers, though, are an even better comparison, because they're an example of a similarly situated team that did absolutely everything people said the Steelers should have been doing over that period. They were a team that was good on paper but managed to disappoint with a lot of flukey close losses, and they unepectedly ended up with a low draft pick. With Rivers exiting, they spent it on a QB who lived up to the hype, and eventually dumped their coach as well. They have a good young QB, a decent core, and a hip young offensive-minded coach. They proceed to make the playoffs three out of the next six seasons, losing in the first round every time. Two of those appearances come after firing the hip young coach and replacing him with an old guy who believes in team defense and running the ball. It's not too hard to imagine an alternate universe where the Chargers have a decent 2019 and, following Ben's injury and the loss of the killer Bs, the team finishes 5–11 and management decides that with a guy like Herbert available it's time for a rebuild. Tomlin is let go, Ben throws a tantrum and gets sold for scrap (he is about the same age as Rivers), and they hire an "innovative" wunderkind as head coach. In 2020, 7–9 is an improvement, 9–8 in 2021 is even better, and in 2022 they actually have a winning season and make the playoffs, and though they lose in the first round, they're improving, and this is what progress looks like. Until they have another 5 win season the following year and they hire a Tomlin clone to get the team back on track an consistently have 10 or 11 win seasons and early playoff exits. And everyone talks about how they really righted the ship.
This is what pisses me off about the constant bitching about the Steelers of the past 5 or 6 years. Yes, is disappointing when you make the playoffs 5 out of 6 years and get blown out in the first round every time. But it's better when making the playoffs at all is considered an improvement.
IMO your data on where QB are drafted is dated. The last 5-8 years of drafts we’ve seen many more QB draft classes clustered with picks 1,2,3 QB if teams like them. And picks 8-20 be true second tier prospects. Good prospects are getting pushed higher up the board. Mahomes, Allen, Ben types aren’t going pick 10 anymore.
Willis is an example of a QB that needed time to develop. His traits are absolutely elite - rocket arm, 4.4 ‘40, Motte poster level Wonderlich score and IQ definitely matters at the QB position. Some reason he only played at Liberty University. Willis was bad in the NFL because he played as a rookie at Liberty which is a giant competition jump.
Elite Traits + 4 years development + 4 good NFL games is 100% an interesting background to bet on. And for the same money as Rodgers.
Steelers have 0% probability of getting a top 3 pick and a shot at a clean QB prospect.
Sorsby had a good shot at going first round this year and most draft prognosticators have him as a top 15 pick without the gambling next year. Not a third round guy. Allar with slightly worse arm, better tape, and far better legs.
I don’t bitch about the Steelers. A lot is well run. It’s just they need to take bigger variance risks to find a QB.
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