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Thé SSPX would tear itself to shreds and then die out before it got to that. They’re already walking a tightrope on being conservative enough to prevent an exodus from their own right wing hardliners and near associates; Williamson’s band of merry men is not something that they are eager to repeat(even if they did just consecrate Fr Goldade a bishop). Liberalizing churches also tend to go downhill very fast in this world. Add them up, and we might see some sort of tiny old calendarist equivalent jurisdiction, we might see them crack apart, we might see some sort of ROCOR equivalent where they merge into regular structures in such a way that allows them to have bishops, but we are very unlikely to see an old Catholic equivalent.
It’s helpful to look at the history; old Catholics did originate with a handful of individuals who disagreed with papal infallibility, one of whom was a bishop. But it grew mostly not by recruiting likeminded individuals but rather by convincing people who wanted to start their own Catholic Church for other reasons of their position. Most old Catholics are descended from essentially mercenary projects- even if it was often unrelated political reasons rather than straight money that motivated them. The SSPX does not have mercenary origins. It continues to deny Mel Gibson communion for adultery despite his fame and large donations. It does not endorse whatever is fashionable on the political right(much to the chagrin of some members), and only cooperates with secular politics when it thinks it needs something.
That's what happens when you start fissioning, and what will be the end result of cutting ties with Rome. The same kind of purity death spiral you see on the left, the really radtrad hardliners will find an excuse to break off from them for not being strict enough, and they'll end up with their bishops cutting loose and ordaining clergy for the breakaways and everything gets even smaller and smaller in a People's Front of Judea versus Judean People's Front kind of fallout.
And some of the splinters will go the other way, like the Danube Seven who claim they do too have apostolic succession since an independent bishop ordained them, even if they were ladies, so they in turn could ordain etc. etc. etc. all the womenpriests.
I too am surprised this happened, but I think Rome finally ran out of patience. The SSPX have been burning through second chances at a rate of knots, and Leo is young enough* that he doesn't have the sympathy with them that the likes of Benedict did.
*Yeah, he's seventy, but Benedict was ordained in 1951 and Leo was ordained in 1977. Whole different generation and experience of growing up with the new Mass.
Given the churches repeated and ancient schisming I think you have it the wrong way round. The left has the same sort of purity death spiral we see in Christianity.
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