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I haven't kept track of every detail but many (most? All?) of the "military evidence" seems to be well debunked by Mick West (eg). Tyler Cowen sometimes seethes about this guy but to my knowledge has never offered a rebuttal. The quality of discourse and reasoning here is not good.
I have not looked into them closely. But Hanson did have a full model for probability of alien life and great filters so he’s clearly thought a lot about aliens and what seems possible in what we know about physics. His academic training in physics and Econ/social sciences is a good of background as anyone to think about these things. He is smarter than so I give his opinion some weight.
I also don’t think he’s at 100% it’s aliens but he does have a probability that’s what is going on.
I mostly posted him because I think he’s a solid thinker who was early on 2 themes (prediction markets/crypto). Someone who is early is often wrong. I’ve quit reading him because I’ve already internalized a lot of his models but probably should be read more.
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