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You are still assuming the conclusion. We have not built a computer program that is as capable as even a sub-median human in all domains, as far as I can tell, unless there is a program that can tie a shoelace and correctly tell me if I should drive to the car wash.
I don't mean this as a gotcha. LLMs are prone to certain cognitive biases that humans are not, and vice versa, and they are highly useful in many fields. But it's clear that the capabilities frontier is not uniform, far from it.
I don't know. All I know is that the current paradigm relies on massive amounts of artificially generated example problems with answers and I don't believe that all of human knowledge is amenable to such treatment. So far I have not seen any reason to believe that actually general, rather than spiky, superintelligence is imminent. And the imminence is, again, really the key question that's motivating all this.
I guess its easy for me to believe that if a largely randomized optimization process (natural selection) was able to eventually get to Von Neumann intelligence, then humans working with a bit more inherent purpose towards the goal of building a Von Neumann level intelligence can probably get there, even if they make some mis-steps and wander around in the dark for a bit.
Especially if we can build some optimization processes that result in sub-Von Neumann intelligences that are nonetheless useful.
Like, the mountain peak we're seeking is visible, poking out above the fog, even if we can't see and specifically plan a route that will get us there, we have flashlights and climbing gear and GPS systems in place to make navigation through the terrain towards the peak much easier. We're not utterly lost with no clue on what we're doing, in that respect.
I don't think this is true. You can imagine it, but you can't see it. If we understood how human intelligence worked it'd be a different story, but we don't.
I can look at what highly intelligent humans have achieved, based on the records of such people, and we can know that there is some path to creating intelligence of that level.
I do have to 'imagine' what it would be like to interact with Von Neumann, but the actual output he produced is tangible and verifiable.
Yes it's called smart people having kids and educating them well.
You're taking the existence of a phenomenon in one substance and assuming it can be replicated in another. You're getting push back because this is an assumption of your world view, and it doesn't seem like you recognize it as such.
Brother it has ALREADY been 'replicated' in the other substance. You have literally no way of knowing FOR SURE that you're not interacting with an AI right now (I will give proof of flesh upon request).
I'm directly asking if any of the doubters have a specific, concrete piece of evidence that this won't just continue in the obvious direction. I would LOVE to hear it, this would substantially reduce my uncertainty and anxiety about the future.
Right now its all implied special pleading that grey matter is capable of feats that silicon is not.
Which is... fine. But not persuasive.
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