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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 13, 2026

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I've written a few times before here that I don't believe stochastic terrorism is a reasonable concept, so it's nice to see Scott Alexander come out with a similar argument in his recent post. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-stochastic-terrorism

And hey, it actually mirrors me quite well!

As I've said before

Of course they're constantly hypocritical over it too, I've never seen a person say "whoops, I accidently committed stochastic terrorism without intending to by speaking negatively about someone to my large audience". Weird how it's only ever applied to others the speaker doesn't like.

Meanwhile he says

The “stochastic terrorism” concept is near-unique in how effectively it can be discredited merely by listing many examples of its use together in the same place. Almost no one supports a blanket prohibition on criticizing of all of these different groups of people. “Stochastic terrorism” mostly gets deployed opportunistically, by people who either are too blinkered to realize that the same argument could be leveraged against their own speech, or who hope you’re too blinkered to realize that.

It's basically the same thing! No one ever uses it for themselves, despite that by the same standards it often could be!

It's hard to add too much to this since I think he covers the general issues I normally would argue pretty well, but I do think he missed something key. Stochastic terrorism breaks a fundamental rule of humanity, we are not a hivemind and people only control themselves.  I can not brainwash someone else to kill for me, and I can not brainwash them to not kill either. No matter how similar that person may be to me. They could be my neighbor, they could be a twin, and I would still lack that ability. We are individuals responsible for ourselves.

I often quote Reagan on this.

We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions."

Reagan of course was speaking against the idea that criminals shouldn't be held responsible for their actions because "society" but the logic works the other way around too, society should not be held responsible for the criminal. The lawbreaker is the one who makes the choice to break the law.

Stochastic terrorism is just another part of one sided demand for the "enemy" (those who the speaker disagrees with) to mind control other "enemies" from bad behavior, and to blame them when they fail to do so.

This is something I've also argued before. https://www.themotte.org/post/2899/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/360516?context=8#context

I've been speaking about this type of issue since I was an older teen seeing Gamergate get called a harassment campaign because a few people sent death threats going "Hey that's not very fair, the large majority of people aren't engaged in threat sending just because a few did! In fact it could even be just one insane people sending several".

I said it about the 2023 pension protests in France "Hey, there's a million people marching you can't expect every single one to be completely moral and good. You shouldn't point to a person being bad and use it to blame the others there"

I said it about Jan 6th "Sure a few people were violent and those ones deserve to be locked up, but your average protestor didn't engage in a crime and it's unfair to say that they're a violent group"

I said it about police during BLM (the large majority of cops do not engage in killing innocents) and about BLM protestors (the large majority of protestors did not engage in looting or arson or other crime).

I've said it about Xianjang and the Uyghurs, I've said it about both the population of Gaza and the population of Israel (most of them are rather peaceful on both sides), I've said it about Russia and pushed back against calling their population orcs despite that I support Ukraine in war and think we should aid them way more!

And I'll keep saying it about other groups, like trans people now. People don't deserve blame for things they don't do, and they don't deserve blame for happening to share group/geographical area/etc with someone who commits violence. Especially because of the Chinese robber fallacy, but even without it.

I know people hate it when I reply to multiple of them with a similar point so I'm gonna stick mainly to this comment to address the common points.

1: "Stochastic terrorism is real, what about X situation where someone calls for the death of another for instance"?

2: "Stochastic terrorism is real, here's some historical events where it has happened"

These two are together because they both get addressed by the same general answer.

We already have a term for such things, it's called incitement. The issue however, and the reason why stochastic terrorism was made up to begin with, is that incitement already exists and therefore has pre established standards and a long history of neutral discussion about it. Those historical examples weren't called "stochastic terrorism", they would have been called incitement. Playing partisan and biased blame games is a lot harder with an established term with established generally agreed upon standards. Any parts that are real are already covered!

That's why stochastic terrorism was made up, it's a very modern phrase retreading old ground because the previous word isn't an effective weapon.

3: "Well what about insert example from group I don't like?"

No, I'm more interested in examples from groups you do like and are a part in. For the general conservative Motte user, we have quite a few to pick from, in part thanks to the president himself. He's celebrated the death of "enemies" such as Mueller, made jokes about attacks against people he doesn't like such as Paul Pelosi, called for the death penalty of "traitors" like with the illegal orders video, and Jan 6 is right there where he didn't just passively take action but actively pardoned people who are on video beating up officers.

There's plenty to pick apart and denounce for a MAGA supporting conservative who genuinely believes in stochastic terrorism.

If you don't like that, Scott actually included other examples you can work with too regardless of your political "side".

Nativists spread fear and mistrust about Muslim immigrants, and then racists go on shooting sprees in mosques.

The #Resistance insists that Donald Trump would destroy democracy, and then various people try to assassinate Donald Trump.

Conservatives spread fear and mistrust about transgender people, and then bigots commit hate crimes against transgender people.

Woke people say the police are racist and brutal, and then other woke people murder police officers.

Socialists call health insurance companies greedy and accuse them of blocking life-saving treatment, and then Luigi Mangione murdered a health insurance CEO.

AI safety activists say that Sam Altman’s AI could destroy humanity, and then a guy threw a Molotov cocktail at Sam Altman’s house.

Liberals said that Charlie Kirk was a hatemonger who was driving Americans apart, and then an assassin murdered Charlie Kirk.

The pro-life movement describes abortion as murder, and then pro-life activists assassinated abortion doctors and pro-choice politicians.

You don't have to use those either, the sky is your limit!

Pick something somewhere of a group that matches your beliefs, and then explain how you still believe it's stochastic terrorism and how you, or your "close allies", have done this terrorism before and are according to the phrase a form of terrorist and you aren't just using it as a tool against "the enemy" and I'll accept that maybe you're the rare one who actually believes in it as a real concept.

And that will still, only apply to you and not the other tons and tons of people who clearly and blatently engage in one sided usage.

And also by doing so, as Scott points out, you might be ironically engaging in stochastic terrorism.

(in fact, one could argue that accusing someone of stochastic terrorism is itself stochastic terrorism! Here in America, we consider it justified to kill terrorists before they can threaten us further. Reclassifying criticism as terrorism implies it is potentially legitimate to apply the same norm to any especially harsh critics!)

Sure, people constantly make up words and abstractions to over-extend their argument. I accept that stochastic terrorism is just a broad form of incitement that can be applied to the most mundane rhetoric, that only a crazy person would interpret as an order to commit violence, because among >8 billion there are crazy people who will interpret mundane rhetoric as violence. And your examples demonstrate this: regardless of anyone's views on immigrants, saying they are dangerous and untrustworthy does not imply they should be brutalized or executed. And that there are only a couple instances of most of these, always by insane people who may have commit violence regardless, demonstrate that a significant effort to police mundane rhetoric isn't worth it.

Labels are intrinsically meaningless. I can invent a term "akjsdha terrorism" and classify anything I want, it doesn't make whatever I classify any more or less moral. And morality only matters for policy: are you deciding whether to commit "stochastic terrorism", how will you act and how will you advocate others to act against it?