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Well, I'll be damned, sounds like a perfect conclusion to the Anglo civilization. A majestic tombstone, just as ordered. Rules and Regulations will finally be observed without a iota of deviation…
I don't get what your issue is. You were born for this.
More seriously: you need to stop huffing rationalist glue, you're an adult man with a family, this isn't 2000s to derive your philosophy from a collective blog of quirky sexually confused autists with rigid millenarian thinking. No, we will have provable unbreakable encryption for the whole stack (such that Thinking Really Hard at it won't help, sorry Yud, should have studied at a secular school after all), we will not have perfect surveillance in private environments, we will not have materialized bullets.
By "we", I mean "you". Maybe it'll be different in the UK, which I recommend you relocate to. In the US, by default, GA is a viable path. I don't like the US much, but I'll grant what is due, there is a very salient concept of individual liberty as a virtue in the American culture. Even if you'll have to rely on Chinese tech to secure it, "you" have a shot.
Speaking of.
It's not GA. Jie Tang is a Tsinghua professor, a CCP member and explicitly does all this stuff for "human well-being and national strategic priorities". But it'll do for now. I get that in your doctrine 6 months of frontier lead eventually compound to insurmountable offensive advantage. If you're correct, we should see this materialize any moment now.
I think you are wrong and in a year, we'll be having the same conversation, if this forum exists and I care to check. And in two years. Eventually, I hope, you'll gain enlightenment, appreciation for freedom, stop fearing and learn to love commoditized AGI (and maybe even the CCP). Let's see.
P.S. the step mom had it coming. Should have had a better plan in place than "step son is too low IQ to find an opening". Evolution, come to think of it, is a very Anglo idea too.
I don't know how you so consistently misunderstand my position.
I'm pretty careful to alyways point out that if the systems don't get much better then my diagnoses of doom doesn't hold. My p(doom) is only ~20%, which just seems like plenty chance to be concerned with.
If GAs are just fable or even mythos in a box then sure, a neat product. The first thing I did when llama first released its open weights was buy a macbook with enough unified memory to run it locally.
If you think we're not going to get meaningful recursive self improvement and an intelligence explosion then the big difference is that you think the pause I advocate for will basically happen naturally. It's a fine thing to believe, I've always thought it was plausible there's an end to easy scaling, although I thought that several massive scaling improvements ago and have no confidence in anyone's ability to predict when an end might come.
Why wouldn't you support a pause if you think the models aren't getting much better from training anyways? Do you think mythos but cheaper tokenomics is basically as smart as it gets?
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