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Notes -
Pardon me since we did this just so soon but, yes, I'm ready to go again:
Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz
Despite Iranian claims to control the Strait and shut down shipping, ships are increasingly making the passage. Ships are turning off transponders (eluding both the Iranians and OSInt twitter prose) and trusting in American protection. And the smaller number of ships making the passage often belies that these ships are carrying more than previous ships did before them:
It appears that America's strategy is working: Iran is increasingly hemmed in, unable to break the American blockade, threatened by inflation and sanctions, dwindling military supplies rendering its threats on the Straits weaker and weaker.
One of the theories invoked last time we had this discussion was that countries like UAE are in fact paying bribes to Iran, meaning that Iran in fact is collecting tolls on the Strait and it's really Trump that's impotent. How's that going?
UAE Cuts Economic Ties With Iran After Missiles Target Territory
Iran's strategy of bombing neutral nations, or declaring that neutral nations are actually working in concert with the Americans and therefore are justifiable targets, appears not to be making it any allies. It appears, in fact, to be more isolated than ever as more countries come around to the American line of thinking.
According to Al Jazeera, however, Iran denies bombing UAE.
So, how do we reconcile these claims? I would humbly suggest that Iran is less and less in control of itself, with political battles between hardliners and those who want to surrender, inflation, a puppet Supreme Leader who has not been seen in public since his supposed inauguration, and a military increasingly acting without any central command or foresight. I would suggest, in fact, that Iran has lost, which remains the case even if the Iranian regime does not fall and continues to make absurd pronouncements that they are actually winning.
Speaking of that...
Trump Responds as Iran Says U.S. Must Meet These Six Demands If Strait of Hormuz Is to Reopen
It looks like Iran is no closer to surrendering than they were a few months ago. And their public-facing demands are clearly non-starters -- unless anyone wants to argue that America is about to eminently surrender and accept these terms -- although it's not clear why they would. Because, at this point, here is where we are at:
Iran is not going to toll the straits. Iran cannot toll the straits. This is as powerful as they're going to get, it's all downhill from here, and it's not very powerful for them. Iran is never going to get nuclear weapons. Iran is never going to break the American blockade. Iran is never going to push America out of the Gulf. They have two options: surrender, or not. And it doesn't matter if they choose not to surrender, because America can continue doing this indefinitely. If anything, the longer this goes on, the cheaper it becomes as Iran's power wanes, more ships transit the gulf, more oil bypasses the Gulf entirely, and the easier it becomes for America to patrol.
What's changed recently? Well, not much. This is just the continuation of what's been going on all along. When America launched this war it significantly crippled Iran's ability to respond, and Iran's threat to control the Strait of Hormuz, which sounded so impressive at first, has turned more and more hollow. I don't expect this argument to be any more popular than the last time I made it, but I want to note again that the predictions that Iran was winning or would win have not been born out, have never been born out. Iran has lost, whether they surrender or not, whether people believe their blustery threats or not.
This is only going to become more and more obvious.
Iran doesn’t lose until the regime falls. They’re in a tough spot, but they still have some options. They can at least wait until the Midterms and if the Democrats win both Houses, Trump will be under extraordinary pressure to end the war. This war is already pretty unpopular, and the longer it goes on, the less popular it will be. If it costs Republicans both houses and they get historically wiped out, some Republicans could turn on him and he’s truly fucked. Iran just needs something like this to happen to “win”.
People have been feverishly predicting this since 2016. So far, it’s the Republican Party that’s turned on the Iran Critics. Meanwhile, nobody talks or thinks or cares about Iran at all, even if they don’t especially like it. Politics doesn’t really work like how you’re proposing: it’s a lot more complicated than losing an election. Vietnam caused the collapse of an American presidency, is this another Vietnam? Surely not.
But this is becoming a different argument: we know America is winning if the counter argument is a Hail Mary.
It's not a Hail Mary. Democrats are going to do everything they can to make the last 2 years of his term hell if they win, and they are predicted as of now to do so. If the Midterms go extremely poorly, then Trump will be the lamest of lame ducks and the knives could come out. If that's the case, Trump may have to make a deal with Iran that is not favorable to the US. That's in my opinion a loss for the US and extremely embarrassing. If I'm Iran, I'm just trying to wait this out as long as possible. They have no incentive to surrender now. Just let the Democrats defeat America from within.
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