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I appreciate the gesture of goodwill, but frankly it's still a lot of dreck. Let me just nitpick at one detail first:
Noted.
There is no need for a niche between Falcon 1 and Falcon 9. Rocket Lab can just as well be understood to be a low-energy fast follower whose research program has hit a wall. Gushing poetic about the "improbable genius" who started 9 years before LandSpace, in a far richer and more advanced aerospace bloc, and is yet to make anything half as impressive as ZQ-3 is a bit over the top. They operate with incomparably greater resources than LandSpace. Beck has 2600 employees on LandSpace's 1200. Rocket Lab announced Neutron back in 2021 yet won't be flying until early 2027; ZQ-3 went from an announcement to a landing in 3 years. Rocket Lab is worth $50B though, which is maybe 10-50 times LandSpace's estimate, so there's that. Rewarded indeed.
You lovingly regurgitate this biopic narrative of charismatic American autists, oddballs and mavericks (who are all sucking the government teat, reuse govt R&D or just work for the state directly), and then drop this "the Chynese government", very unsubtly (though I guess subtly enough for you) insinuating the essential difference in where the initiative comes from. Do you honestly not notice what you're doing here? For you, American state is not really a state, it's a background for colorful characters inside and outside it; the Chinese one is a hivemind machine dispatching soulless (but you'll generously grant that they're industrious and clever) workers. This is the most tired trope in how Americans engage with Communists or, really, with any geopolitical adversary, by alienating and dehumanizing them. "Document 60". "Financier Zhang Changwu" – at least not the Imperial Eunuch. He's LandSpace CEO, what does it matter that he worked in finance? LandSpace as such is a non-entity, a creature of external scheming. It's all, shall we say, rather dickless, huh? Not main character coded. So of course your position as the main characters is unassailable. Even if the Chinese can be pretty hardworking.
The Document 60 came out 11/26/2014.. Almost 9 months prior: «The 2nd Session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opened in the Great Hall of the People. Li Yanhong, known as Robin Li, the CEO of the nation’s top search engine Baidu, expresses two proposals on March 4, 2014:
2 Suggest the educational resources of some major cities should be openly pushed on the Internet.
The following are the details of the two proposals:
In recent years, China developed rapidly in aerospace industry and made a series of remarkable achievements. These achievements affect and prompt the development of the relevant industry and the whole economy in China. However, compared to the United States, Russia and Europe, China still need improvement in aerospace industry. Be aimed at current situation Robin Li encourages private enterprises to develop, build and launch rockets and satellites for the aerospace industry. In addition, he suggests the cooperation between the private enterprise and national aeronautic companies to promote the development of aerospace industry, to use space technology in other related industries.…»
Far as I know, this proposal by Robin Li is the real start of Chinese private space. We won't know if there was any maverick autist inside the CCP annoyed with the bureaucracy at CASC who had orchestrated this, or helped promote this. They don't get biopics. That's not CCP style. Maybe Netflix could dig something up. I doubt "The Chinese Government" is a hivemind capable of just Realizing This Was An Option without any individual first mover, however. Even the whole priority on industrial sovereignty versus more engagement was nontrivially shaped by input from private citizens, even nobodies. I'll find the receipts when I have the time or inclination.
And also, here's how your story looks from the perspective of LandSpace's chief engineer
Do NASA engineers who left for SpaceX feel anything similar about the National Team?
That's some solid state backing, man. The Document 60 sure did a lot of work.
…
Is the crayfish anecdote not "American maverick" coded enough? Was a Document 60.1 dispatched to make this happen? Did the Financier Zhang Changwu promise behind the scenes to compensate the crayfish dude for his downtime? (he probably did) You guys make entire soapy movies out of such stuff, with Silicon Valley nerds peering into the monitor autistically, green glow on their faces, and no-bullshit Texas bros grunting homoerotically in rundown sheds, as they forge the American Dream. Maybe in 10 years they'll make a movie about LandSpace too. And about DeepSeek (have you heard of that time Liang Wenfeng drove into the vast emptiness of Tibet and totaled his car? Or the three years he was a shut-in in Chengdu, making money to bootstrap his eventual rise as a quant trader and an AGI maverick?), and about the Unitree CEO guy who's too autistic to learn to spell, and about the Moonshot guy who had everything in the US and came back to build his own thing, a whole bunch of others. And even the national team will get some spotlight: Rear Admiral Ma Weiming is the man who made EMALS on aircraft carriers work (yours is inferior btw, to the point Trump considers scrapping it – maybe too many mavericks for once), because he was just that "autistically" convinced that his scheme will work. Frank Wang will definitely be appreciated more as drones grow more important. You can surely say he didn't invent "the drone". Well, Musk didn't invent "the rocket". No, he didn't. He didn't go from "Zero to one". In fact I'd say this Thielian frame is an insult to what Musk does. He, in my opinion, does a very Chinese thing, just better. He picks up an underrated tech tree and finances it until it works.
Don't misunderstand me: I'm not saying your propaganda is false. I've spoken here in defense of Musk, for instance. These men are real, they do have certain noble ambitions and qualities of character, and championing them and their archetype is a great achievement, merit and source of power for the American nation. It's just very tedious after a lifetime of huffing it without being an imperial citizen. And it's depressing to see this being appropriated as an oversaturated marketable aesthetic by your grifters who chase said deep capital – domestic grifters and, increasingly, imported ones. And it's obnoxious how you are, perhaps without even realizing it, trying to monopolize the status of men. It all comes down to this. One side has eccentric geniuses with Faustian visions, the other "directives of the state".
Dan Wang is a midwit who found a nice simplifying pitch for airport reading. China is, at least for now, ran by Communists first and engineers second (Xi's pipeline is oversaturated with Tsinghua STEM Ph.Ds though so it may change). Why China doesn't make a lot of new categories of products or technologies, and whether stuff like BYD/CATL batteries can be brushed off with "everyone knows this is a matter of technical working out" is a complex question. The biggest part of the answer is "in 2000, they had $1000 GDP per capita, they physically couldn't fuck around with shoveling money at frivolous mavericks until very recently, they didn't have even a fraction of the capital needed".
Still, I agree that any honest answer will be at least somewhat damning to policies of Communists, and perhaps to the Chinese character as such. Liang Wenfeng says that what they lack is confidence to dare. But looking at, for example, the trend in novel biomedical research, I'd say this answer will be of mostly archival significance, whereas "can they catch up" is very salient in a geopolitical sense, and the discourse about caprices of the CCP sounds increasingly quaint. Jack Ma got disciplined for overestimating his leverage and going through with his scammy fintech idea, and a thousand op-eds were written on how the CCP "crushes innovation", and today Jack Ma's company publishes near-frontier models on Huggingface and develops pretty decent AI accelerators. This is all concern trolling. I don't advise the US to adopt their ways, but if you think you've calibrated your arrogance down far enough, I think you're still wrong.
They can, and they will, and the CCP is confident enough in its power to allow it. But more importantly, China is already advanced by singular men, you just don't notice them.
Yes, it's a "gain in efficiency". That's kind of the whole deal with semiconductors. Of course you find a deflationary way to put it.
It's mainly that there isn't a single Western company comparable to Huawei in breadth of relevant expertise. Nvidia does chips, TSMC does manufacturing, ASML does lithography. Huawei is a networking giant plus everything all at once. They can, in fact, simply do some necessary and important things first.
I agree that within your paradigm, that would be a huge problem for Huawei. Luckily, Moore is dead and, as per their argument, everyone else will also have to do natively 3D design and logic folding for increasingly large chips, so they'll manage somehow. Just gotta wait to copy from eccentric geniuses who are copying them. In the meantime they'll be busy developing their 3D EDA tools. Whether it'll get a biopic or not, we'll eventually see the product.
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