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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   8498 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 24, 2026

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This is goalpost shifting. You said:

I'm sceptical of these narratives that the US is going to scale up munitions production to counter Russia or China.

I presented you evidence that the US in fact is scaling up munitions production to counter Russia or China, and in fact already had scaled up munitions production. Now you are claiming that the scaled up munitions production is insufficient, an entirely different argument that would be an interesting one to make, but as you point out a difficult one to engage in, because

Nobody knows how much production capacity China actually has for missiles

However, my position is that missile production by itself is a poor measure of how a war will go. Iran's missile production is very good, but this did not give them the power projection capability necessary for them to achieve a decisive and quick victory. Russia's missile production is very good, but this did not give them the power projection capability necessary for them to achieve a decisive and quick victory. The relevant question is actually about munitions production relative to the expected red target set and blue kill chain apparatus.

Russia missile production is pathetic. Probably it is more capable that some other developed countries - but that is because they are even more pathetic. 100 iskanders per month? Khrushchev shat more ICBM after taking laxatives.

Iran missile production could be called good if you squint, then put a lot of asterisks to it. But mostly they had accumulated stock. Still - I have to grudgingly admit that convincing the gulf states that you could overload their defenses and surviving the onslaught is good result for them.

But with China - a nation that has shown that they can scale everything to absurd levels - they couldn't threaten conus. Or want to - but they can totally make Taiwan flat.

100 iskanders per month?

1200 Iskanders per year compares favorably to US production of 400 PrSMs per year.

Or want to - but they can totally make Taiwan flat.

I don't think anyone is denying that, but I don't think they want to do that.

1200 Iskanders per year compares favorably to US production of 400 PrSMs per year.

And having syphilis compares favorably to having aids. Still means you are not healthy. I honestly expected both Russia and Ukraine to become smarter and be able to produce more stuff to throw on the battlefield.

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