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Bloomberg: Goldman Says Gulf Oil Flows Two-Thirds of Prewar Level
A lot of ships are still making the crossing dark with transponders turned off but the trend is clear. Iran’s (supposed) leverage over the strait is basically nullified, oil is passing through despite Iranian proclamations. Independent analysts now agree with what the US government was saying weeks ago, that millions of barrels are passing through the strait under American auspices.
US CENTCOM agrees, putting out this statement that the US has escorted a few thousand ships through the Gulf, carrying through three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil over the past few months.
What changed?
Axios: "That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz
The US has apparently de-mined the Straits of Hormuz, although, interestingly, there don’t seem to have been many mines in the first place!
It seems as though Iran’s capacities to threaten ship traffic the Strait were severely degraded by US military action, but that Iran was successfully able to convince news reporters and insurance companies that it could target ships.
For instance, Brady Sullivan at CNBC says
Meanwhile, Reuters: Pipelines and ports: Iran war spurs Gulf infrastructure investment
Not only has Iran lost control over the Straits, but Gulf states are building new pipelines to reroute oil around the Straits so that Iran can never threaten them again.
And how does it look inside Iran?
WSJ: Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran
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Some might remember Trump’s infamous comments on this subject some months ago:
The Shakes take: Iran will never toll the straits, Iran will never have nuclear weapons, Trump was right about everything, a lot of people who believed Iranian claims are looking very, increasingly, increasingly!, foolish.
Oil flows being 2/3 of prewar isn't as bad as what they were around Easter, but even if volume were 100% of prewar, there's more to the story. They're getting to that number by running the straits at night, transloading into smaller vessels, using specialized crews, and doing other things to limit the danger. These things all cost money, on top of the increased premiums insurers are charging. But as you quote in your post:
This is not a good thing. What this means, essentially, that what oil is flowing is largely reliant on a US carrier group positioned in the area. Until that carrier group can leave with little risk of any knock-on effects, the war hasn't been won. You come here every week or so and post the kind of stats that could have easily shown that the US was winning in Vietnam in 1969, in Iraq in 2007, and in Afghanistan in 2015. Yet nobody would consider those wars successes. Trump himself ran on a promise that he wouldn't replicate the mistakes that got us into those wars. And instead he got us into the naval version of any one of those, with worse consequences for failure. Whether it's worse to have 100,000 troops tied up or a whole carrier fleet is a matter for debate. What isn't a matter for debate is that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz has real, immediate consequences for Americans that Communists controlling Vietnam or the Taliban controlling Afghanistan simply didn't. Whatever the oil flows actually are, it's cold comfort when I'm paying a dollar a gallon more for gas than I was a year ago. Until the troops can leave without risk of things getting worse, the war isn't over.
The war hasn't been won but this is garbage logic. Having carrier groups in position is a complete nothingburger. Conducting blockade and air patrol is a bit more effort but still not a lot.
It's a far cry from Vietnam which was sending home body bags every day.
Especially since it's not like the carrier group is in some random backwater. It makes sense for the US Navy to have a presence in the area as it's such a crucial and central bit of geography.
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