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Bloomberg: Goldman Says Gulf Oil Flows Two-Thirds of Prewar Level
A lot of ships are still making the crossing dark with transponders turned off but the trend is clear. Iran’s (supposed) leverage over the strait is basically nullified, oil is passing through despite Iranian proclamations. Independent analysts now agree with what the US government was saying weeks ago, that millions of barrels are passing through the strait under American auspices.
US CENTCOM agrees, putting out this statement that the US has escorted a few thousand ships through the Gulf, carrying through three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil over the past few months.
What changed?
Axios: "That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz
The US has apparently de-mined the Straits of Hormuz, although, interestingly, there don’t seem to have been many mines in the first place!
It seems as though Iran’s capacities to threaten ship traffic the Strait were severely degraded by US military action, but that Iran was successfully able to convince news reporters and insurance companies that it could target ships.
For instance, Brady Sullivan at CNBC says
Meanwhile, Reuters: Pipelines and ports: Iran war spurs Gulf infrastructure investment
Not only has Iran lost control over the Straits, but Gulf states are building new pipelines to reroute oil around the Straits so that Iran can never threaten them again.
And how does it look inside Iran?
WSJ: Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran
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Some might remember Trump’s infamous comments on this subject some months ago:
The Shakes take: Iran will never toll the straits, Iran will never have nuclear weapons, Trump was right about everything, a lot of people who believed Iranian claims are looking very, increasingly, increasingly!, foolish.
Why do you write in this style? Do you think that if you talk this way people will find it more convincing? Or is this just performance art and trolling? I honestly can't tell. Also, do you honestly think Trump has deeply held beliefs about Iran that he has actually thought through? He can't be "right" about this because he doesn't actually think about it or have deeply help beliefs on this subject.
Inflation is up, Trump's approval rating is in the gutter, the war is unpopular, and by your own admission it's a 2/3 of pre-war levels! Imagine if they didn't go to war -- it would probably be at 100% pre-war levels because there would be no war! The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at a 44-year low of approximately 289.7 million barrels, having fallen below the 300 million barrel threshold for the first time since 1983. What do you think will happen once that runs out?
Trump spent all of his remaining political capital for this amazing "victory". Iran can keep this up for years. They don't give a shit about their people and their suffering. Unless the regime falls, this war was a complete waste of money which of course adds to the debt. There's no guarantee that the Iran regime will fall during Trump's term, and if they are still around in 2 years, we will have probably spent close to a trillion dollars for no tangible benefit.
Instead, Democrats might take all 3 branches now and become the wokest of wokes to ever woke. Public support for the U.S. military action in Iran has hit record lows, with the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showing just 31% approval, down from 37% in March (so it was never popular). Trump’s approval rating on handling the Iran conflict stands at 25-33% across recent polls, contributing to his overall second-term low approval rating of 33%. How do you think that will go if the war isn't wrapped up soon? If Trump doesn't finish this up by the Midterms and takes a massive L, he's cooked. Republicans may even turn on him.
Right now the war is "unpopular" because the mainstream media is spinning it 24/7 as some sort of unwinnable quagmire, and people are afraid of getting trapped in another Afghanistan type situation. But if he actually wins the war, then it will suddenly be a lot less unpopular. Winning doesn't necessarily have to be a formal regime change, just some sort of obvious symbol of progress, like floating a big convey through the Strait of Hormuz.
But on a broader level, if Republicans lose in the midterms... so what? Trump is a lame duck president and an elderly man, of course he's going to lose popularity. The purpose of winning elections is to do things, you're not trying to do things just to win elections! Trump will still be commander in chief, with wide powers to fight the war as he sees fit. The democrats in Congress can complain, but all they can really do is set budgets.
In some sense it may be better for Trump['s project] to be unpopular due to the war than something like immigration enforcement. If you think that some degree of unpopularity was baked in, the unpopularity of the war is something that the administration can to some degree steer (and also that future Republican nominees can more easily disavow).
It could be copium but I would buy that Iran is working as 5d chess to distract the population from negative newsbites about immigration enforcement. Few people are talking about ice on college campuses or rioting outside federal facilities. Instead normies have turned to armchair experts in drone warfare and oil markets
I don't think Iran was done as a 5D chess move to distract from negative immigration news bites, but I wouldn't be surprised if, now that it is kicked off, the Trump administration (or at least some factions within it) aren't (contra what you would expect from Reading The News) desperate to end it in any rush exactly because it is generating narrative top cover as you describe.
I also do think that the blockade will continue to pay off over the long run and the admin is probably in less of a rush to "win the war" than one might imagine for that reason as well.
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