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Notes -
There have been some interesting updates to the Iran War, if anyone would like to discuss.
IRGC-aligned elements in Iraq launched a drone strike at the Saudi East-West crude oil pipeline, which KSA has since shut down. This pipeline may have been transferring up to 5mb/d of crude. Some are claiming these were Yemeni drones and the Shia militias are being blamed for larger geopolitical reasons, as America and KSA would like the Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq to be disarmed by the end of the month. But the official statement is that the drones were from Iraq.
The Houthis have expanded rapidly and now have dominion over the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, capturing the important Perim island. This cuts off an additional 3mb/d of oil typically exiting through Yanbu out of the strait
Iran launched 20 ballistic missiles at American bases in Jordan this week, and may be repairing all of their old missile cities in order to produce missiles (in smaller quantities). "Satellite imagery shows Iran is rebuilding everything from bridges and roads to production sites at a pace that is worrying Israeli officials, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Iran has restored access to tunnel entrances for missile bases that had been collapsed by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Weapons stored inside those underground sites are likely to be well-preserved, according to Israeli military assessments. Challenges to returning to full-scale missile manufacturing include damage to chemical facilities needed to make liquid propellants and industrial mixers for producing solid fuel, Arab officials said."
As far as oil going through the strait, IMO it is difficult to ascertain the true figures. I was trusting Kpler but they stopped making their numbers public and literally deleted all of their previous posts on traffic (they got the call?). I don't trust the other firms much. Reuters is reporting 6-7 ships through the strait per day the past four days, which could indicate 30% of the normal oil flow. Maybe someone has better data.
As usual, i find it difficult to follow all the details through the fog of war and propaganda from all sides. My main hunch is that the houthis will be quickly fought back- they just don't have the resources to actually hold territory. The market seems to agree, as the price of oil jumped yesterday but went back down today, suggesting an attitude of initial alarm and then calm.
Even if they are fought back quickly, unless they are defeated permanently, then the US is going to have to stay and down billions to keep the oil flowing. The current cost of crude is massively subsidized by the US tax payer. Think about how much additional money each barrel of oil costs right now from the US military having to escort it through. What’s the actual cost when you include interest in the debt?
Those sailor and pilots are going to get paid the same whether they're patrolling near iran or flying in circles for training in the middle of the ocean
The Iran War cost isn’t just their salaries. We’ve spent 37.5 billion so far according to Hegseth. Do you think all those advanced weapons they’ve used are free?
That's about 2 days of social welfare spending. Think of all the mobility scooters and dialysis we could have bought with that money!
Obviously wasting money is bad, but this war is being done on the cheap.
There's also the disruption in energy and pressure on inflation and interest rates, which is the bulk of the economic cost of the war.
Indeed. If you are like me and think inflation is essentially a tax, then this war directly increased the taxes on every American. Not to mention adding to the debt.
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