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birb_cromble  4d ago (text post)   893 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-09-12

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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Are you going to invest in Anthropic's purported $2T IPO?

I'll wait for the S-1 to decide for sure, but most likely yes, up to 5% of my portfolio.

Why not more? I have a high degree of conviction that AI will radically accelerate the economy (mod any paperclip effects), but I'm much less sure on who will reap most of the benefits. I could see anything from Ant/OAI/GOOG individually taking it all, to an oligopoly, to it diffusing through the economy with relatively few rents accruing to the labs as intelligence is commoditized. And there is a built in cap to returns: even (or especially) if everything goes perfectly according to plan for Ant, they will become the number one target for redistribution, and short of Dario overthrowing the government, he'll be asked to share with everyone else. Someone's X% ownership of Ant is not going to be getting them X% of the light cone.

If OpenAI went public the same day, would you split that 5% clean in half?

Depends on the S-1s, but I intuitively feel OAI at 1.2T (the most recent rumored private valuation) vs Ant at 2T probably has more upside. Ant having better enterprise numbers for a couple quarters because of coding agents doesn't say that much about the ultimate winner in the case where commoditization doesn't happen and one ends up dominating.

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