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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   19020 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 14, 2026

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Details are fuzzy

This. Without sources, I have only your say-so. Not that I doubt that Trump has made some noises concerning Greenland.

There are claims by the USG which I think are credible. When Trump said he had kidnapped Maduro, I updated a lot on that because I could not see what he would gain by deceiving the world about that for a few hours.

By contrast, any strategic claim about the Iran war (victory, Hormuz, Iranian bomb status, future of the Persian civilization) made by Trump is not something I would update on.

Applying this epistemic standard to the Greenland situation, the only thing I conclude is that he probably had some concessions so that Denmark would not simply go on record stating there is no deal. This does not mean that there is, in fact, a deal.

With the mid-terms looming large, it seems to me that Trump is under a lot more pressure than Denmark is.

Nor do I think that China would try to invade Greenland. What they will probably want to do is invest in Greenland REE mining. This seems win-win: China has the know-how (unlike the US) and so far strongly prefers checkbook diplomacy to gunboat diplomacy outside their sphere of influence (unlike the US). Their policy is generally having their long-term interests in mind, and not written ad-hoc by an elderly narcissist with a Twitter account.

Denmark apparently has confirmed this, but as ever 'details remain unclear'.

Denmark and Greenland – an autonomous Danish territory – both hailed the agreement and said they would sign it on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next week.

“A long period of uncertainty will hopefully be replaced by a binding agreement that strengthens security in the Arctic and North Atlantic,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said in a social media post on Saturday.

The deal respected Denmark’s “red lines” and was “important” in light of a changed security situation, he said.

This does not mean that there is, in fact, a deal.

There is a deal. Prediction markets are >95% for a deal being signed.

This doesn't mean that the deal will be meaningful in any capacity, but something is getting signed.

I think your calibration is off about when to trust Trump and when not to and that the details of the deal will broadly match his post on X.

Will update if wrong. Hope you do the same.

Applying this epistemic standard to the Greenland situation, the only thing I conclude is that he probably had some concessions so that Denmark would not simply go on record stating there is no deal. This does not mean that there is, in fact, a deal.

Denmark (and Greenland) are on the record stating that there is, in fact, a deal.

The agreement would bar non-NATO nations from establishing a military base or having a troop presence on the island — and would prohibit investments by non-allies in the critical minerals and mining sectors, according to the State Department.

Thanks for the source. I will concede to you, @porkpiehat and @phailyoor that this seems to be a deal. I think the military base provision is a nothingburger -- Denmark would have been unlikely to grant China the right to establish a military base in any case (nor is it obvious that China would have wanted a base there).

The investments by non-allies provision is certainly more of a deal. My understanding is that Western investment in Greenland mining has been less than enthusiastic, and China has shown some interest in investing in Greenland, but been blocked on a case-by-case basis so far.

I think that the purpose of Greenland wrt REE is mostly as a hedge against China cutting off Western access and less as a money-making-machine. Under these circumstances, it makes sense that China wants to invest there for purely strategic reasons, and it also makes sense for the West to limit Chinese investment.

Given the present information, I would be mildly surprised if there was nothing in the deal about foreign investment in mining, but the fine print matters, of course. What exactly are critical minerals, what kinds of investments are prohibited, what about Western companies partly owned by Chinese investors investing in Greenland and so forth.

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