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Polls and prediction markets are currently showing good chances that the Democratic Party will have control of both the House and the Senate starting next January. What would be the effects of this? I imagine:
More investigations of Trump. Whether they result in anything or not, this is something that the Democratic Party leaders feel compelled to do for various reasons: emotion, ideology, belief that they might actually find something that will sink Trump, and also the belief that their base wants it.
The Democrats will push more heavily for AI-control legislation. Fears of job loss due to AI are rising, so this is a natural way for the Democratic Party to start drumming up goodwill heading into the 2028 Presidential elections. Plus I think many Democratic Party leaders are probably genuinely concerned about AI.
The Democrats will launch increased legal and funding challenges to the Iran War. The Democratic Party is not fundamentally isolationist or anti-war, of course, but they would love to continue letting the Republicans own the negative consequences of the war, plus Israel is increasingly unpopular among Americans.
Maybe the Democrats will at least make more noises against tariffs to try to link them (and thus, Republicans) more firmly in the public mind with the public's current negative sentiments about the economy? I don't know to what extent Democratic Party leaders actually care about getting rid of tariffs, especially the anti-China ones.
Trying to limit ICE's power? This is a tricky one because on the one hand, Trump's most popular issue right now is immigration. On the other hand, Hispanics are apparently fleeing Trump in droves, so going against ICE could be a good way to keep them voting Democrat for the next few years at least. Plus this issue really energizes the Democratic Party base.
Refuse to confirm any of Trump's appointments
Virtue signally legislation that Trump will be forced to veto such as a BAN ON HORSEMEAT (also includes full amnesty for all immigrants)
Investigations, investigations, investigations. Control the news cycle with impeachments of Trump but also Hegseth and others.
It's really hard to form an opinion on what's going to happen. Some thoughts on both sides:
The polls have been going wild, but I also remember when Ann Selzer had Iowa going for Harris and Trump won by +13. There's no doubt that Boomer leftist whites are highly motivated to answer polls. But they still only count for one vote.
Republicans have a motivation problem since it's been two whole years since the Democrats were in charge and Trump didn't magically fix everything. The retard right who was mad about vaccinations are now mad about data centers or whatever else retards get mad about.
I still have a hard time believing that Talarico is going to win in Texas or Al-Sayed in Michigan. These should be layups for Republicans.
Republicans have a lot of money in this cycle but Democrats are broke
If non-citizens were voting in appreciable numbers, they won't be now. But it probably won't matter since it's relatively small (< 1%), concentrated in safe blue states, and no guarantee they all voted blue
Apparently many states with mail-in votes are seeing fewer people ask for them. Could be a game changer if ballot harvesting in places like Detroit and Cleveland doesn't get off the ground.
People are really mad about affordability and are pinning it on Trump. His data center stance is unpopular too. One of the rare 80-20 issues that breaks D.
I'm not sure we've really fully modeled how Tik Tok and Instagram affect elections. It could be that 80% of women just get longhoused and its a permanent D majority from here on out. I mean, if these people will support a literal baby murderer...
Overall, I'll say Democrats take the house and Republicans hold the Senate fairly easily. But low confidence. I might just have my head in the sand. I'm a worrier, so I think that 2028 could be terminal for the Republic. Amnesty + open borders + ASI = a woke boot (or more likely a Han Chinese boot) stomping on human faces forever. I know every election is the most important ever. 2028 actually might be.
I don’t have a hard time believing Talarico is likely to win. The public doesn’t know him, Paxton is a terrible campaigner who’s mostly known for bribery and sex scandals, and it’s a blue year.
I do think that Abbott and French are significantly undervalued.
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