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PaperclipPerfector
1d ago
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Transnational Thursday for September 24, 2026
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I've just signed up for this site as I wanted an alternative to reddit. (By the way, are there any other users here based in SE Asia?)
I went on a Taiwan/China research binge recently. My overall takeaway was that Taiwan's military position looks a lot weaker than it did 15 or even 10 years ago. I don't think it's as weak as certain Taiwan bears make out, and I think the PRC might still want to avoid an outright invasion (more details below), but the threat of invasion is now a lot more credible.
Key factors:
the PRC has overhauled every branch of their military over the last ten years. The old PLA was a creaky Leninist-style organization built on the Soviet model, and was focused on ground forces and interior security. The new PLA now looks more like a modern military, with integrated branches of service, a professional officer corps, and a ton of spiffy new hardware.
following from that, the PRC has a lot of hardware. They have an enormous industrial base, something the Soviets never had. (A closer comparison is Nazi Germany, but iirc the PRC is far more dominant in industrial capacity than the Nazis were at their height.) For example, the PLA Navy now has many more ships than the US Navy, and they can easily crank out more. (Though the US Navy still dominates in gross tonnage, because the Chinese still lag in building aircraft carriers.)
the US is currently divided and distracted and support for another faraway war might receive lukewarm defensive support. Taiwan's defensive strategy for the cold war has largely been to try and hold out for as long as possible until the US can bring their assets to bear. (Japan and Australia are very likely to join an anti-PRC coalition, but there is not much they can do without the US.) I think most observers believe the US is very likely to step in to defend Taiwan, the question is the level of support they will bring to bear. In brief, Taiwan is #1 top foreign policy priority for the CCP leadership, while it is probably about the number #6 or #7 priority for the US.
On the other hand:
Taiwan is a mountainous island and islands are notoriously very difficult to invade. The PLA, with almost no real naval tradition, would have to pull off an enormous amphibious invasion, in conditions vastly less favorable than the Allies faced during Operation Overlord.
Although Taiwan's military is small and the reserve force is undertrained and ill-equipped, the reserve force is still reasonably large. The PRC would likely need to ship over 700k troops (possibly over 1mn) to have a reasonable chance of holding the island.
China would have a very brief widow to actually win the war. Failure would lead to an enormous loss of international standing and economic catastrophe. Even success would be a mixed blessing: China would gain a rebellious province of 23mn people at the cost of permanently torching their reputation as a "peaceful superpower" and almost certainly triggering a new cold war.
What do I conclude? From the point of view of China, and especially the CCP, Taiwan is not something they can ever let go. Still, even if the odds are better for the PRC now than ever before, an all-out invasion would be an enormous gamble, basically a bet-the-house maneuver with enormous risks, huge potential downside, and mixed upside.
So what do I predict? The safest strategy for the PRC, and especially for the CCP with respect to Chinese domestic politics, is to keep extending their grip over Taiwan by primarily non-military means. That looks like: further economic integration, diplomatic pressure, and the expansion of 'influence operations'. The latter includes compromising Taiwanese elites (in business, politics, the military, etc), relentlessly spamming the island with propaganda, and psychological warfare.
The military threat will remain in reserve as a backup option to support the above. For example, a naval blockade of the island would cripple the Taiwanese economy and seriously demoralize the people, who rely on imports for most of their food. Such a military operation, falling short of a full invasion, would be less likely to trigger a full US response, making it a huge propaganda win for the PRC. ("We can surround you with our enormous navy at any time, while your supposed protectors across the Pacific dither and argue".)
I wrote a long comment for my first post here so I will wrap up. From China's POV, forcing Taiwan into a compromised political arrangement (written heavily in Beijing's favor of course), without full annexation, gives them most of the benefits with many fewer drawbacks. If, hypothetically, they got the propaganda win of gaining de facto control over the island, and PLA military bases on Taiwan, they don't mind so much if the Taiwanese retain some kind of sham democracy and the ability to access Western social media.
That was my conclusion after lots of deep reading, but I'm curious to hear the thoughts of others.
Having a lot of hardware doesn't mean much alone - Saudi Arabia has lots of hardware but is completely inept at using it, losing to Houthis all the time. Whether or not US is going to involve itself is a big gamble - wars are expensive, but they are also very useful for uniting the nation. And Japan may use this chance to come out of the shadow on WW2 and reassert its role as a normal nation with normal military. Australia is unlikely to pay any substantial role, as far as I understand they're completely cucked by now. I think you're right that economical pressure and corrupting the society is probably more likely ways, but you never know...
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