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The war isn't about oil for the US, it's about Iran's nuclear program. Oil was just away for Iran to strike back. If non-Iranian oil is flowing and their nuclear program is stymied, Iran is losing and America is winning. Except that gas and diesel prices say that's not actually the case.
Certainly the war is not over, not until the US can reduce military presence at least back to pre-war levels without anything bad happening, said bad things including Iran shooting at merchant traffic.
I agree 100%. I actually had a similar comment last week saying basically the same thing you said in your second paragraph. As long as the US military can’t and the area isn’t the same as it was pre-war, the war is far from over. I don’t see any easy solutions for this other than giving Iran concessions that are not acceptable, so this war will continue for the foreseeable future in my opinion.
I also listed Trump’s pre-war aims noting that only one (destruction of their Navy) had been completed so the war is not over by Trump’s own standards. OP said they all had been accomplished, but I just don’t see that being anywhere close to reality.
The USA actually seems to be reducing military engagement in the region below prewar levels, with the announcement today that troops are pulling out of Iraq. (Again)
I pray that a peace deal is reached, and to a lesser extent that it is favorable to the United States and does not lead to the destruction of Israel.
Withdrawal from iraq is on a timeline set well before the iran conflict. Regardless of whether it was a good idea it's only fulfilling past obligations made years ago. In fact it was Joe Biden who set the timeline.
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Concessions won't even work, since they won't stick to their end. They're going to have to be destroyed, or they will win. Whether that can be done through attrition or is going to require actual invasion is still up in the air.
This is essentially the argument I made last week, so I agree 100%. The concessions I was talking about were ones that are a non-starter that would be so humiliating that the US would never accept them. But you are probably right that even if they got those, they will push for even more eventually. Thats why I made the argument last week to OP that the war isn’t over and the US can only win if the Iranian regime collapses.
"if the Iranian regime collapses."
Had a back and forth with "Lion of the Blogosphere" on X, he in favor the war. We agreed on this point about the regime, but I claimed the fallout would be even more refugees flooding into Europe. He responded, "that's Europe's problem." Incredible.
Agreed. The US could potentially cause the Middle East to go into even more chaos and that could have consequences all over Eurasia. Best case scenario to me is we go back to the pre-war situation, and that obviously won’t be worth the cost of the war.
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