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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   10942 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 28, 2026

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So they claim,

These are two analyses from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, not the American government.

yet real prices are nowhere near pre-war levels.

Prices are falling. We would expect that the longer supply stays at pre-war levels the closer prices will get to pre-war levels too.

Regardless, the Iranians have already done enough to ensure that the Dems retake Congress. Kalshi has them at 91% for the House and 63% for the Senate. They're already predicted to win Republican strongholds like Texas (62%) and Alaska (70%). The only real question is whether they think they've hurt Trump enough politically to establish deterrence or whether they decide to escalate and give Trump an October Surprise big enough to flip Kansas and Nebraska too.

Fantasy world political predictions. It would sound more reasonable if you just said you thought Democrats were going to take the House.

These are two analyses from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, not the American government.

Did I claim otherwise? JP and Goldman have, at different points in this conflict, predicted basically every possible outcome ranging from "total catastrophe" to "everything is fine in two weeks" so I don't put much stock in their claims. What matters is the actual market price which doesn't remotely reflect a reality in which everything is back to normal.

Prices are falling. We would expect that the longer supply stays at pre-war levels the closer prices will get to pre-war levels too.

When you began declaring victory the price was somewhere near $80, right now it's sitting around $95.

Fantasy world political predictions. It would sound more reasonable if you just said you thought Democrats were going to take the House.

If you prefer, Polymarket has Democrats winning the Senate at 63%. Are you willing to take even odds against the Dems winning the Senate?

Fantasy world political predictions.

Yet those are the actual odds presented by the most accurate forecasting method we have. Maybe if the public has turned against the Trump admin so much that the electoral odds look like fantasy, it should be reason to self reflect on those failures that brought us here? Maybe one of the most unpopular wars in history was a mistake and no amount of propaganda changes that.

And as always with prediction markets, if you don't believe them, then go bet against it and make a lot of money.

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