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Notes -
Are Democrats going to show up on election day?
While the base poll numbers and prediction markets would seem to indicate a Republican disaster, there are also concerning signals for Democrats.
Supposedly, there were 59 million absentee ballots requested in 2022. This year, only 49 million have been requested and time is almost up. This includes states that spam mail to all voters, most notably California. Removing those, and absentee turnout could be down by 1/3rd this cycle.
This matters because Democrats are much more likely to vote absentee. In 2024, 44% of Democratic voters voted by mail, compared with 26% of Republicans.
So what's going on? Some possibilities:
Lower turnout across the board
Lower turnout among Democrats only, particularly black Democrats who can't be assed by the new Democratic party which is mostly about illegal aliens and gay stuff.
Democrats have lower faith in Trump-led postal service, thereby shooting themselves in the foot much like Republicans did in previous elections. Fewer absentees, more in person, but overall less since going in person is harder.
There really was lots of ballot harvesting, particularly in black areas, and it's being suppressed by fear of prison
Since reality is boring, it's probably just #1. But this election is going to come down to turnout. I'm definitely extremely skeptical of the poll numbers this far. The prediction markets seem crazy as well. It seems like free money to bet against Talarico in Texas and El-Sayed in Michigan. But maybe that's because the alternative is too painful to contemplate.
If it's not a Democrat landslide, then pollsters and prediction markets stand to lose a lot of credibility. It might also mean the official audience capture of Nate Silver who predicts a 71% chance of Democratic control of the Senate and says "Polls may be biased against Republicans. Or against Democrats".
Since reality is boring, I suppose we'll meet in the middle.
Was 2022 a one-time bump from COVID? I know it was well and truly done by then, but habits can take a long time to break.
Not sure. It’s a good theory and could explain why the Red Wave never materialized. Dems were in general more scared of Covid, so might have been more likely to vote absentee. Absentee requested = higher turnout. Also explains why 2020 turnout was a record.
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