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Notes -
Are Democrats going to show up on election day?
While the base poll numbers and prediction markets would seem to indicate a Republican disaster, there are also concerning signals for Democrats.
Supposedly, there were 59 million absentee ballots requested in 2022. This year, only 49 million have been requested and time is almost up. This includes states that spam mail to all voters, most notably California. Removing those, and absentee turnout could be down by 1/3rd this cycle.
This matters because Democrats are much more likely to vote absentee. In 2024, 44% of Democratic voters voted by mail, compared with 26% of Republicans.
So what's going on? Some possibilities:
Lower turnout across the board
Lower turnout among Democrats only, particularly black Democrats who can't be assed by the new Democratic party which is mostly about illegal aliens and gay stuff.
Democrats have lower faith in Trump-led postal service, thereby shooting themselves in the foot much like Republicans did in previous elections. Fewer absentees, more in person, but overall less since going in person is harder.
There really was lots of ballot harvesting, particularly in black areas, and it's being suppressed by fear of prison
Since reality is boring, it's probably just #1. But this election is going to come down to turnout. I'm definitely extremely skeptical of the poll numbers this far. The prediction markets seem crazy as well. It seems like free money to bet against Talarico in Texas and El-Sayed in Michigan. But maybe that's because the alternative is too painful to contemplate.
If it's not a Democrat landslide, then pollsters and prediction markets stand to lose a lot of credibility. It might also mean the official audience capture of Nate Silver who predicts a 71% chance of Democratic control of the Senate and says "Polls may be biased against Republicans. Or against Democrats".
Since reality is boring, I suppose we'll meet in the middle.
I genuinely don't know about Talarico. By every account from all sides, Paxton is a terrible candidate. I can't understand why Texan Republicans haven't done a Platner on him, except that perhaps he has such entrenched support that he cannot be shifted by anyone. That being so, I have to wonder: is it likely that Democrats won't turn out to vote for Talarico because they assume he'll win so it's not necessary? Or will the Republicans manage to convince enough voters to hold their noses and vote for Paxton?
Silver Bulletin is giving it to Talarico at the moment (48.9% to Paxton's 45.5%), but I dunno. There's something unconvincing about him. So I see why it's not free money on the prediction markets against him, but the result could always swing the unexpected way.
Paxton won a very competitive primary against an incumbent who spent $100 million. He won in a landslide. So he’s the guy, obviously. I think people are smart enough to vote strategically instead of handing the seat to a guy whose biggest concern is trans kids. Even Paxton’s estranged wife encourages people to vote for him.
Nate is the sober rationalist here. Kalshi has Talarico at 63%!
Yeah, I think Nate and the team are trying to keep their model from leaning too far in one direction or another. And while Talarico has a nice lead right now, it's not so huge a gap that Paxton couldn't catch up if something happens between now and election day.
Remember that 63% betting odds is literally "too close to call" - if 37% of your calls were wrong, you would be bozo-binned for calling elections too early. It is far closer than a 63-37 poll lead.
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