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Notes -
See I sort of believe the opposite, insofar as there's been a 'silent conservative' faction that doesn't get registered since the media is so outright biased, EVERY election is made to seem like an easy win for the Dems, and this particular rake keeps slapping them in the face.
There's a lot of conditions that I think WOULD trigger a Dem blowout, among them an actual recession, an actual infantry-based shooting war, or another plague or other disaster to hang on his neck (guess there's still time). I don't think we have that.
The main factor in the Dems' favor is simply the trend that the party in power usually 'loses' the midterms. But they haven't done a single thing to sell themselves that I can see. Likewise, its not clear what animus will get Dem voters to the polls other than a seething hatred for Trump.
The last time I saw a seemingly motivated Dem base was after Roe was overturned and even that didn't produce a pronounced blue wave, although it might have thwarted a red wave.
It would also be risky to assume that Trump and Co. don't have an actual, effective plan in mind given how efficiently they've dispatched so many other geopolitical foes (Iran being the stubborn holdout).
When mainstream faith in the press is this low, its hard to believe that the driving factor at work will be media coverage.
Although yes, the median voter might be sour on the GOP by now.
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