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While it's true that the anti-government forces in Yemen are supported by Iran, that conflict would continue even if Iran magically poofed out of existence.
He considers a lot of things and does fuck all for many of the time. In fact Trump even says he will do something many times and still does fuck all, so saying he'll consider something is truly a nothingburger.
Very low according to polymarket. Maybe escalation of attacks against shipping but not by that much.
Why wouldn't they escalate in all the previous months? It's clear that the retarded tit-for-tat strikes of previous months have been a pain in the ass for both sides, and Iran would rather chill in the current standoff. While there's a chance Trump will escalate in the coming months, there's also a massive chance that Trump will pussy out like he's done countless times before, and Iran seems to like those odds.
The Houthis have repeatedly showed willingness to make peace with the United States. It's true that their recent attacks are not in the US's best interests, but they're clearly targeted at KSA and while the Houthis have the capacity to disrupt far more than they have done so far, they have chosen not to use that capability.
On the other hand Iran got a peace deal with quite favorable concessions from the USA but decided they still want to blow stuff up.
That’s a good point on Iran thinking he might just do another TACO. But if they think he may attack after the midterms, then their best strategy imo is to kick it off early and embarrass Trump and ensure a historic defeat. Making attacking them a political suicide is in their best interest. But maybe their intelligence thinks they have done enough. Interesting on the Polymarket odds. That makes me lower my estimate. I hadn’t seen those.
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