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Something very strange is going on. Iran is negotiating its surrender. The war is over and Iran has lost.. I have been assured that the United States has destroyed Iran's ability of their proxies to project power in the Middle East.
Yet somehow, despite this war goal being accomplished and the war being over, Saudi Arabia is still being attacked by Iran's Proxies..
At least 12 people were killed and over 300 injured in a Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, October 10, 2026. This marks the third strike on the facility in one week and the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February.
In response, President Donald Trump stated the U.S. is considering joining Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against the Houthis, while the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert urging American citizens to avoid the Riyadh airport.
So to summarize, it looks like the war is expanding, Iran's proxies continue to be able to strike US allies, and Iran's proxies are escalating the conflict instead of backing down.
With early voting opening up soon for many states, what are the chances Iran has an October surprise in store for Trump? Trump has stated that the U.S. will not resume military strikes on Iran before the November 3, 2026 (midterm election). The U.S. military is deploying roughly 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which departed San Diego on October 4–5, 2026. This surge brings the total U.S. military presence in the region to over 60,000 personnel and establishes three aircraft carrier strike groups in the theater for the first time since April 2026.
So Iran knows that Trump wants the Iran War to quiet down before the Midterms, but he is preparing to escalate once it is over. Why would they play along with this? I believe there is a good chance they will escalate and cause Trump and Republicans political embarrassment soon. But maybe this doesn't matter, because for some reason, the Houthis don't count. So I guess everything is going according to plan. So this all could just be nothing.
While it's true that the anti-government forces in Yemen are supported by Iran, that conflict would continue even if Iran magically poofed out of existence.
He considers a lot of things and does fuck all for many of the time. In fact Trump even says he will do something many times and still does fuck all, so saying he'll consider something is truly a nothingburger.
Very low according to polymarket. Maybe escalation of attacks against shipping but not by that much.
Why wouldn't they escalate in all the previous months? It's clear that the retarded tit-for-tat strikes of previous months have been a pain in the ass for both sides, and Iran would rather chill in the current standoff. While there's a chance Trump will escalate in the coming months, there's also a massive chance that Trump will pussy out like he's done countless times before, and Iran seems to like those odds.
The Houthis have repeatedly showed willingness to make peace with the United States. It's true that their recent attacks are not in the US's best interests, but they're clearly targeted at KSA and while the Houthis have the capacity to disrupt far more than they have done so far, they have chosen not to use that capability.
On the other hand Iran got a peace deal with quite favorable concessions from the USA but decided they still want to blow stuff up.
That’s a good point on Iran thinking he might just do another TACO. But if they think he may attack after the midterms, then their best strategy imo is to kick it off early and embarrass Trump and ensure a historic defeat. Making attacking them a political suicide is in their best interest. But maybe their intelligence thinks they have done enough. Interesting on the Polymarket odds. That makes me lower my estimate. I hadn’t seen those.
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