This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Trump has completely given up on “tanker for tanker”
Trump has completely given up on striking anywhere in Iran, for weeks apparently, even as Iran launches volleys of drones and missiles daily
Iran “remains well-stocked with ballistic missiles and some anti-ship weapons, and can quickly add more”, while receiving new armaments from Russia, and we should assume Russia has a desire to embarrass their #1 geopolitical rival who helped get them into the Ukraine kurfuffle
the fire rises upon the namesake of Ahura Mazda: Iran’s strikes are causing more severe damage, and their range of attacks grows larger
Iran has struck a bare minimum of 15 vessels in two weeks, could be much more than that but they stagger the reporting
sailors are being offered 4-6x normal wages for crossing the strait, indicating serious risks to life or limb (why would any sailor care if the vessel were merely struck? That would mean less work and command a lower wage. How much would a third world mariner risk to make 6x wages?)
As of October 4th, known Iranian route crossings rose from 23.2% to 29.9%; no vessels crossed via the Omani Route; the rest were dark transit / unknown. (Why does no one talk about what a big chunk of ships use the Iranian route?)
Vessel crossings in total fell past few days; October 8th was the lowest number of crossings in two months
Kpler’s head of geopolitical risk speculates that the Arabs are paying Iran to get their crude out. They are paying the toll.
Americans left Iraq without disarming the Shia militias, which was part of their original deal with the Iraqi government for their condition of leaving.
Are we winning yet?
I think if we were to see a quick resolution in a way that was favorable we'd probably expect to see oil prices that were low both in the spot market but in the futures market as well. (Or at the very least, a much steeper term structure.) As it stands if I want to get 1000 barrels of crude in December, it'd cost about $90.50/bbl. If I want it in August, it still would cost roughly $81/bbl or so. (Eyeballing the futures for WTI Crude Oil.)
Before the war, we were trading at around $70 or so. The futures that has that price roughly is around sometime in mid-2028. Now these prices move a lot and are subject to drop a lot on some headline but even that effect is becoming muted as Trump decides to declare victory every week or so.
More options
Context Copy link
Yes, we are.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link