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I remember running the numbers once, and estimating 80++ years life for modern guns. It was a dead-simple production rate vs. existing stock calculation, and I don't think I even corrected for changes over time.
I assumed modern AI could do better, but Claude Sonnet doesn't improve much. It reports 0.1-1% per year from the literature, with weak evidence.
Look at the last fifty years to predict the next fifty, and we might get...slightly better metallurgy, machining, ergonomics, and style? Maybe some different cartridge geometries like the Winchester Short Magnum line and better bullet construction like bonded jackets. Gun design isn't quite as solved as knives are, but they're a very mature technology by this point.
The problem is that, while like any man I admire beautiful engineering and want something way better than what I actually need, guns long ago passed the point where the gun is holding back the accuracy. Get me the finest $10,000 firearm it's not going to improve my groupings all that much over the cheapie.
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