This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:
Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says
The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket
Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:
Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal
Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.
From Nate Silver:
If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.
You've been sounding like a broken record repeating this talking point over and over. Trump got impeached twice and started a laughably incompetent coup, and he's still here. Surely this time he's going down.
Trump's influence will likely wane quickly after his term is over, as he's old as af and doesn't have any prospect of running for any other office. But you'd better get used to him being in the house because you have another 2 years of it.
Trump will remain the most powerful politician in America likely until the day he dies. You don’t literally need to be the one whose signature goes on an Executive Order to be the person where power resides. George Martin got this right. Joffrey sat on the thrown but the true power was Tywin. Whether it’s Little Rubio or Vance there power will be dwarfed by Trump and if it’s a Dem all eyes will still be on Trump though he will be less powerful in that scenario.
Why else would Dems still be talking about prosecuting Trump if his political power disappears when he’s not in the WH?
Not really. The decision tobehead Ned Stark was his, not Tywin's, and it had some wider geopolitical implications, to put it mildly. I really do not think the dynamic between Rubio or Vance and Trump would be like the one between Joffrey and Tywin. For one thing, Tywin was a brilliant schemer with decades of administrative experience, someone capable of keeping the kingdom running smoothly. Trump II feels more like "Joffrey has banished Tywin and made Littlefinger the leader of the privy council".
Sure, all the GOP positions are selected for loyalty to Trump personally, but there is no Blood Bond binding Senators to Trump, nor do House candidates have a tadpole inserted into their brain upon winning the primary (to my knowledge).
Unlike an absolutist kingdom, the US has a constitution and it gives the president a lot of formal powers. The default assumption is that the president is the most important politician in the US. At the end of the day, he or she decides who gets investigated by the DoJ, which bills get vetoed, what the policies of federal agencies are.
Trump's cronies might be Trump's, but they are also cronies. Some might be willing to lay down their live for him until the moment he dies, but most are probably loyal to him because at present, it pays to be loyal to him. When Trump leaves office, it will be common knowledge that he will never again hold public office, nor be in the position to repay favors much longer. That is not a great position to be in if you want to be the power behind the throne.
Basically, my assumption will be that he will go back to just being some guy with a twitter account full of bullshit.
Though a bit also depends on how he leaves office. If in two years he gets Vance or Rubio elected by a landslide, that will net him some informal influence -- a lot of congress candidates will owe him for endorsing them. On the other hand, if he manages to lose (as I imagine he will), future generations of Republicans are unlikely to cling to the MAGA platform.
The fact that he was elected twice is already weird enough. But a huge part of him winning a second term was due to unforced errors of his opponents. In six years, even the Democrats will be hard-pressed to find someone more senile than Trump to run against him
I completely disagree with all of this. First Tywin is the one putting Joff on the throne. Killing Ned was a very short term impulse of formal powers. After that incident Tywin gave Tyrion power over Joffrey and charged with preventing Joffrey decision making.
Trump would have no formal powers. But he can still primary any Senator or House Rep. He can tank any Presidency approval with only a tweet.
You are doing dumb Dem shit saying it’s cronyism and loyalty. I back Trump because he’s fought for me. He’s the only one fighting to deport millions even if it’s too slow.
I will abandon Trump the day he’s no longer fighting for my best interests. That day is not today.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link