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So, if you look at the CDC data, the suicide rate among 15-19 year olds has climbed from 8.5/100k in 1980, to 9.4/100k today.
But at the same time, the accidental death rate among 15-19 year olds has fallen from 57.8/100k in 1980, to 18.9/100k in 2024.
What I'm suggesting is simple: it used to be a lot easier to get yourself killed, so people who didn't want to live didn't have to kill themselves. You could get a dangerous job, engage in a dangerous hobby, drive recklessly, join a street gang, or otherwise just do something stupid. The drop off in accidental deaths of almost 40/100k is more than enough to hide the .9/100k increase in suicide deaths, it would only require 1/40 accident victims to have a death wish in their heart of hearts.
My theory: some portion of people are born with a tendency towards suicide, and this will first express itself through engaging in activities likely to get oneself killed while ignoring safety precautions before manifesting as a formal suicide if the accident doesn't occur. Suicidal ideation and unsafe driving habits are highly correlated among teenagers.
Modern safety measures thwart the teenage suicide in his effort to kill himself accidentally, forcing him to more direct means.
Some of the decline in accidental deaths is presumably because we're now better at keeping people alive after they have life-threatening accidents.
And also to better safety procedures for doing the same tasks, along with teenagers and young adults engaging in those activities less.
But regardless, the opportunities to get oneself killed aren't as present. It doesn't matter that it's because of improved emergency response and car safety and medical care that I can't get myself killed drag racing, it matters that I can't get myself killed drag racing.
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Which also incidentally applies to rates of lethal gun violence.
Of course, I suspect it's also true that we're now better at turning would-be suicides into unsuccessful suicide attempts for the same reason. I'd be curious to know the relative reductions.
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I guess this period also coincides with the decline of the latchkey kids phenomenon and the gradual de-normalization of what we would call today free-range parenting. On a different note, the notion that street gang membership and the popularity of dangerous hobbies has somehow declined in the same time period is suspicious.
Exactly. The rise of safetyism and managed childhoods leaves kids with a strong death urge with no outlet for it. You can't just go out and drag race with your buddies or jump into a quarry or get into a fight. Your day is scheduled and managed and supervised. Even if you want to get into a pseudo-risky sport like skateboarding, rather than juvenile delinquents chased by cops through city streets, today's skaters are dropped off, helmets and elbow pads firmly fastened, from fleets of Toyota Siennas, at the local skate park. They've been co opted by the system.
The rate of high school students who have been in a physical fight in the past year has dropped from 42% in 1980 to 19% today. The rate of high school students who drink, do illicit drugs, go to parties, drive drunk, hell who drive at all, have all cratered in that time period. In 1985 teenagers made up 15% of all motorcycle riders, now it's less than 2%, and I'd bet half of those ride with their dad. We know that kids spend more time at home, less time out with friends, and immensely less time unsupervised by adults than they did decades ago. It would be incredible to claim that kids today were more likely to engage in dangerous hobbies, given that the most dangerous ones (fighting, drinking, drugs, parties, driving) are all definitely on the decline.
I'll spot you gang membership, the point I'm getting at there is the idea that for the middle class white American youth the opportunity to get into some trouble used to be around in their own community; now the middle class white American youth lives a life so managed and scheduled that the opportunity to get into some trouble is farther away.
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