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I think an under-acknowledged challenge of AI is that it will dramatically increase the opacity of systems that everyday people use. There are already reports that much of Gen Z and especially Gen Alpha are computer illiterate, likely due to the prevalence of mobile operating systems that do everything they can to obscure technical details from the user. Actual illiteracy also appears to be increasing. I wouldn't be surprised if something like a "knowledge oligarchy" emerges, where the vast majority of the populace is captured by hyper-addictive entertainment technologies, leaving a small group of people who actually know How Things Work.
This is directly counter to my own experience with AI. AI is the best user interface I've ever used. It massively reduces cognitive load for figuring out complex workflows, which in turn makes engaging with those workflows on a granular level much, much less frustrating and intimidating. Whatever convolutions you go through, the AI can always explain how things work immediately and at an arbitrary level of elaboration. This is a complete game-changer, in my experience. It's search that actually works, it's manuals that actually work, it's UI that actually works, and on and on.
Congratulations, you're one of the people who know How Things Work. I think for anyone with a hint of technical expertise, AI is a fantastic teacher and time-saver. However, I think as more and more kids grow up with AI as their native tongue, they will lose the ability to ask the questions that get them to technical expertise in the first place. It won't go extinct, to be clear, but I suspect technical knowledge will be deemed unimportant and wither over time.
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"Knowledge oligarchy" implies the people who know How Things Work will be better off than the ones who don't. That's true now and it will be for a while longer, but mature AI simply renders human intelligence obsolete. The computer is faster than you and smarter than you and way cheaper than you; you simply won't be able to compete, and even trying means wasting effort that could have gone into... whatever does matter in this new world. Social status games, probably.
Like, the vast majority of people used to be involved in agriculture. Over the past couple centuries there's been a precipitous drop in general farming acumen. So is there now a 'farmer oligarchy?' Not even close. In fact, the skill set of the people who do farm is enormously different from the farmers of the past -- the only people keeping that tradition alive are irrelevant hobbyists and idealogues.
So, yes, systems will become more opaque to humans trying to understand them personally, but why would you ever do that? In practice they'll be much more transparent, because you'll just ask your own AI to figure it out for you.
I’m skeptical, because intelligence includes just knowing what to ask the AI or dealing with whatever it inflicts on you.
It’s true that in an AI dystopia, intelligence won’t stop you from being tortured or gunned down by an AI drone, but this is true today and was true s/drone/barbarian/ millennia ago.
Those who have any opportunity, intelligence still matters. And the only way everyone will have zero opportunity is if AI kills us all. Even if it fully provides for you, there’s still opportunity in self-actualization (which includes things like, figuring out your favorite food) that I doubt ASI can completely provide. And even if it can self-actualize you, even if it can fully simulate and predict your brain, then you still have “intelligence” in every meaningful way, just simulated by the AI (in the same way we could be or not be living in a perfect simulation, but it doesn’t matter because it doesn’t change anything).
Well sure, human intelligence is only obsolete to the extent artificial intelligence is available as a replacement. There are scenarios where it's not that widely available, but I don't think they're very likely (possibly besides AI killing us all). As we transition to a bread-and-circuses model for keeping the useless masses content (which we probably will because it will be cheaper and less risky than other approaches once AI drives the marginal cost of labor down far enough), direct AI access provides good bang-for-the-buck.
In terms of self actualization: people can self-actualize by doing things inefficiently -- say, playing chess without an engine -- but that doesn't make it not-inefficient. When I say 'obsolete' I mean 'devoid of instrumental purpose,' not necessarily any purpose. Though I suppose playing chess well without an engine, while not high-status in any absolute sense, is certainly higher status than playing it well with one, so maybe that is a flaw in my definition or reasoning.
Human intelligence is valuable even with artificial intelligence, unless it's practically omniscient, because intelligence includes the ability to prompt the LLM correctly. Even if it's perfectly aligned, unless it's practically omniscient, it can't know what you truly want, part of self-actualization, you must figure that out on your own.
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AI is simultaneously the best tool for learning, and the best tool to avoid learning that mankind has ever devised.
What one chooses to do with it just depends on the individual's personality. It will supercharge conscientious people, while being yet another "skip" button for the lazy. The internet was the same way -- a portal to infinite potential learning and skills for some, while little but the latest vector for proleslop for others.
This exactly. I expect that in 5-10 years at the latest we'll have computers / phones that are essentially nothing but an AI that simply directly does what you tell it to do, maybe even with no fixed structure or UI. Everything can be tailor-made for you. Basically Alexa supercharged.
If you're conscientious, curious and intelligent, you'll use this to improve your life, to learn as much as possible, and to fix issues with common apps that have always bothered you, or generate new kinds of apps that beforehand had a terrible ratio of #customers/(complexity of app), or maybe even nobody had thought about. If you're none of those things, you'll use it to serve yourself a stream of slop, levels of sloppiness never before though possible.
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YEP
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Even for things I am competent at, i still succumb to the laziness aspect. This is why even mathematicians are using AI for papers, like on arxiv. these are experts, but they still outsource.
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Interesting: my guess would have been the other way in practice. Not that the full stack will be better understood necessarily, but because AI as a personal assistant may cut through existing red tape and friction. "Make an appointment with my dentist" is much easier than going through a phone tree and waiting on hold, and not even necessarily worse for the counterparty if they automate their answering service. I expect it to be better than static text for things like tax forms in answering "are my prediction market winnings 'gambling'?". But I will admit it's a bit of a loose prediction.
In software land, I see that early predictions of opacity armageddon aren't fully panning out. You can vibe code things, certainly, but in complex products it really works well in well-written software. It helps to have good, accurate comments and traceable links to requirements and documentation. In my usage I largely try to clean up things it found confusing, which I think has strong overlap with naive human developers.
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AI at this point does everything better. Everyone will use it to save time and outsource their thinking. The only thing it lacks is agency but even that may change.
AI doesn’t do everything better. It writes better code, but its taste is still horrible and I suspect hasn’t really improved. From my perspective and what I hear online (I consider the contests that awarded AI to be exceptions).
Even when AI art is popular (e.g. Malfoid pics) it’s because a human came up with the idea and heavily curated if not edited its output. I think AI photos and videos are improving, but only in production (no more weird hands). Because it has not stopped being generic to the point of blandness, even when prompted to be “creative”.
Even in software, its architecture is over complicated and probably slower to implement or buggier than human-designed, its explanations are worse than an expert’s because it doesn’t know what to include or leave out, and non-trivial UX you need humans at least to review. There’s a simple way to judge when AI really starts to eclipse humans in software dev: when a large project that is not just some port is created entirely with AI, that competes among the best human alternatives (to be clear, the ports are very impressive especially when combined. But I notice, even in the combinations, the interactions are lazy and not particularly deep, compared to e.g. Order of the Sinking Star).
everything minus some epsilon?
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Praise be the Ommnissah! The Sacred Liturgies of the Machine God are reserved for the priests of the Valley of Silicon. If you want your light bulb turned on please consult your local Ad-Mech tech priest in the sacred operation of illumination.
The machine god will anticipate whether you want or need your light bulb turned on. If you disagree, you're wrong, at least within the constraints of what best delivers shareholder value. Now go back and play your gacha game, there's a new weekly prize.
The Huxlean Capitalistic Ommnissah is a new liturgical schism that I was not aware existed. Please tune in to your local MMORPG streamer to know more about exciting shareholder value increasing opportunities near you. Flesh is weak brother, not like this new artificial endocrine system.
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