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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   7001 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026

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Sure, that's plausible. When I referenced "larger turnout universes", that just means the number of possible voters that are available to Republican candidates. It doesn't guarantee that they will actually vote, and even if they do vote, it doesn't guarantee that they will vote for the Republican.

One factor in Paxton's favor is that he's running in a federal election. There will definitely be some Republicans that hold their nose and vote for him because they want the federal Senate to be Republican. It's more likely that Paxton would be doomed if he was running in a Texas state race.

In the mind of Texas conservatives, these two things are reversed. Senators are those people on TV that accept bribes in exchange for not doing anything; the state government is more important to high propensity Texas GOP voters.

Senators are just votes but seem like they do little…..but they are still extremely important. It’s just for the vast majority of Senators their job is to vote for your side and maybe 5-10 of them are important for setting the agenda. Probably less.

Thanks for the education, I did not know that. Maybe Texas really is its own country.

Historically speaking, for other states there is a pattern of state races being more winnable for the minority party, than the federal races. Kansas hasn't had a Democrat senator elected since 1932, and was +22 for Trump, but they recently had a Democrat governor. And Vermont keeps re-electing a Republican as governor, but I think he would lose if he ran for Senate.

Paxton's electoral record is pretty good though! He won a state race in 2022 for Attorney General by 10% and he beat Cornyn by 27% despite Cornyn spending over $100 million.

I know he's supposed to be the worst candidate ever, but the results would indicate otherwise.

Talarico, on the other hand, is not the strongest candidate himself.

I mean, maybe it's a super blue wave and none of this matters, but Texas seems less likely to fall than other states.

by 10%

In an R+14 state.

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