Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.
The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.
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Dude, that wasn't a calculation. It was an arbitrary number somewhere in the ballpark of your $5–$10/week estimate. But beyond that I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. I thought it was some kind of explanation of why the Republicans lost so badly. If the only explanation you can come up with is that everybody else should have the same opinions as you, even when those opinions run contrary to core constitutional principles, then I don't know what to tell you.
I’m fairly certain when the data comes out it’s going to be the Hispanic vote with the big move. I hope you update your opinion that it wasn’t “gasoline” prices that caused the midterms.
Because gasoline prices should have roughly the same effect on voters regardless of race.
I'm not doubting that the shift in the Hispanic vote had an influence on the election, but you seem uninterested in why the Hispanic vote shifted so much from 2024. And while it was a big shift, preliminary data suggests that Talirico still got a lower share of the vote than Beto did in 2018. These shifts precisely suggest that there isn't some kind of ethnic spoils thing going on, especially since the Hispanic population in Texas hasn't increased that much since 2010, at which time nobody thought the state would ever be in play for Democrats.
Correct, but some races have lower average incomes than others and thus feel the pinch more. Some voters aren't ideologically inflexible and are open to voting for candidates of different parties. You seem to believe we can group people into demographic buckets and make assumptions about how they'll vote. Democrats did this back in the 2000s with their "Demographics is Destiny" argument, and you see how well that went. Republicans thought they'd have a permanent presidential majority with the electoral vote expected to shift to Texas from California, but now it looks like they'll have to actually win Texas and not take it for granted. Things change, people change, and you can't just assume that they'll stay the same. If your goal is to ensure a conservative majority by keeping out immigrants, it doesn't work like that. If Democrats think that allowing more immigration will allow them a permanent majority, it doesn't work like that. If things ever start to head in that direction there will just be a realignment. There are certain economically depressed white areas around Pittsburgh that 25 years ago you'd be nuts to think would ever consider voting Republican, but now they're prime Trump country. It's the nature of the beast.
I’ve thought with the population shifts that Texas would be in play for a while. Texas going Dem isn’t a surprise to me though the timing is early.
You kind of can dump people into demographic groups. GOP wins basically everywhere on the white vote. The four grandparent US citizen vote GOP dominates.
Regardless if politics are just gasoline prices then neither side will ever have more than 2 years in power. You went from GOP winning the popular vote in decades to a complete wipeout 2 years later. Like what bigger things are we actually governing on.
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