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Goodguy  3d ago (text post)   Edited 3d ago   9757 thread views

Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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Welp, so much for yesterday's stock market rally. The Nasdaq is off 4.5% today. Looks like it briefly hit 5.4% down. Officially in correction territory now, down more than 10% off the peak, and only up 6% YTD.

NVDA down 8%. Micron down 13%.

The steep dropoff means its likely a fund or two just got blown up. I guess people are digesting the data center votes.

Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and other states going blue can't help either. Where is stuff going to get built now? Not to mention that taxes are going to go up a lot in 2029, if not earlier.

I've made fun of gold bugs in the past, but I think they might have a point.

I've done a lot of digging and there's no real rational reason for this complete market capitulation beyond election fear. My account is sad, but I'm using this opportunity to buy the dip. AMD has a strong earnings beat and expects continued growth through the next year, NVIDIA hasn't reported earnings yet and their PE ratios are heavily beaten down considering their evaluation.

SpaceX and TSLA would be interesting if Elon actually combines the two companies. I don't have as much cash as I would like but it would be a fun play.

I do wish I ran options, but I didn't predict the level of panic that occurred due to the election. I believe there may be other reasons for the volatility today which are more difficult to report on, but I have no real evidence since I'm not privy to a Bloomberg Terminal.

Crazy leverage in the system means that relatively small shocks can be self-perpetuating. Good chance people saw the market strength day before, went 'phew back to business as usual we're up only', slammed on a bunch more leverage then got caught as market went back the other way.

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