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Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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My view is that you are underestimating just how much everyone hated and hates Hillary, especially the self-anointed vibe that both she and Harris give off.

I think you are over-estimating how much Hillary hatred existed among the left prior to her losing to Trump. She did, after all, get about the same number of votes as the very popular Obama did in 2012 against the same Mitt Romney. Even with Trump bringing all these disaffected voters out to vote, she still did get more votes and the election was very close, so if we presume all the disaffected voters stay home, that mostly hurts the Republican and Hillary wins easily.

2016 was just kind of the beginning of incredibly hotly contested elections, i.e., ones in which Trump participates; Obama vs Romney was not nearly so intense. Plus, there is 4 years of population growth so the slightly fewer votes Clinton got vs Obama in 2016 was probably like 3% lower per capita. If Clinton is only against a normal Republican, it is very unlikely that she gets anywhere close to that turnout, while Republicans would have indeed been running against a great turnout motivator in Clinton (or, shit, Sanders; I would have voted for any candidate at all in 2016 opposing Trump or Sanders).

Regarding Hillary hatred among the left, my thinking on this is from my friends and family who, amid the 2016 election and primaries, talked about how much they hated her. As a fan of competence, I liked her, but vibes-based voters absolutely loathed her and pretty much always had.