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Michel Houellebecq, widely considered the most important living French writer, is once again facing trial for hate speech-related offences, this time for statements he made in an interview in 2022.
In the interview, he hypothesised that once muslims become the hegemonic demographic of France, there will be "reverse Bataclans" - essentially native French engaging in acts of terror against their muslim overlords. The main inciting factor for the trial, which is happening at the behest of the Union of French Mosques (UMF) and the Movement Against Racism And For The Friendship Of Peoples (MRAP), was his statement that the Great Replacement is self-evidently not a "theory", but an easily measurable and observable statistical reality. He faces up to one year in prison and a fine of 45.000 euros.
This trial arrives right as key figures of the main French left-wing party, La France Insoumise, have called for the very mention of any kind of Great Replacement to be criminalised as hate speech (which it already more or less is, depending on how you phrase your stance towards it) - all while simultaneously promoting the concept of the Nouvelle France ("New France"), a deliberately ambiguous term that nonetheless carries a socioethnic component, seeking to uproot the traditional reading of France's national identity (Gauls -> Latins -> Christian Kingdom -> Republic) and replace it with one that gives equal historical and identitarian weight to the populations of the former colonies now living in France. The Leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, currently running for President and occupying the second place in the polls after Marine Le Pen (thus making him the most likely candidate to ender the run-off round of voting in May 2027), has long advanced the idea that traditional French culture is loathsome and scientifically inferior to the Arab World, going as far as saying that the Gothic style of Architecture originating in Saint Denis was due to muslim craftsmen. He has also stated that the language of France should no longer be called French, but should be renamed to "Créole", since the majority of French speakers in the world now reside in Africa. The tragicomedy is that, as a long-standing figure in the French Left originating from the Trotskyist milieu, Mélenchon used to be an outspoken advocate against any forms of religious or ethnic sectarianism - positions he has since walked back and apologised for as his party increasingly became a reservoir of naturalised foreign citizens and muslim interest groups.
As the Centre and Centre-Right of French politics remains weak and highly divided (there are 2 candidates running as the "centrist block", and 5 candidates running as moderate right-wingers, none of which have been able to make a meaningful dent in the polls), the upcoming election will almost certainly be the most politically polarised moment in the History of France's Fifth Republic, as the far-right and far-left face compete for the Presidency, an office which enjoys enormous powers under the current French Constitution, all while Parliament has lastingly fractured into 3-4 political blocks unable to form any kind of working majority. Despite the election still being half a year away, the country has already entered full campaign mode, further inflamed by the compounding social movements and mass demonstrations, the historic wave of looting committed by organised groups of nigh-exclusively arab/black immigrants and French-born children of immigrants, and the complete political isolation of Emmanuel Macron, who is now the least popular President in modern French History, leaving behind a spiralling debt crisis and an untenable spending deficit that risks to unleash economic devastation in the coming years. As a francophone and former resident of France, I have been closely following French elections since Hollande got elected in 2012 and believe me when I say this upcoming election is unlike anything France has seen in living memory.
Returning to Houellebecq, it is fascinating to see the decline of one of France's greatest traditions - a shared respect and deference across the political spectrum for public intellectuals and figures of artistic merit. Famously, Charles de Gaulle demanded that all charges against Jean-Paul Sartre be dropped, arguing that "one doesn't arrest Voltaire" - despite Charles de Gaulle being a conservative nationalist and Sartre being a Maoist fanatic at the time. Despite the fiery content of his novels, Houellebecq is a largely mild-mannered, soft-spoken person, and I assume he won't use this opportunity to turn the trial into a larger demonstration of France's current crises: in a country in which all forms of ethnic and religious censuses are strictly prohibited, how can one be charged for matters regarding a Great Replacement, legally unprovable by design? He has already responded to his upcoming trial, warning against "a judiciary which increasingly believes it alone can decide social and political debates". If he actually receives a prison sentence (unlikely, it will probably be a fine), he would quite literally be a political prisoner, jailed for stating an unprovable opinion.
I no longer live in France, but I maintain deep ties to the country and appreciate it deeply, despite its chronic flaws and the severe shortcomings of its population ("French people are cattle when it comes to politics", as De Gaulle said). It will be fascinating to see how this trial takes shape. At any rate, it's a good time to reread Houellebecq's books.
How about this - Le Pen wins, pulls a Meloni, governs to the center, nothing happens. She makes some performatively mean statements about Islamism, deports a few thousand illegal migrants, conducts a few heavy-handed national police raids on drug dealers in the banlieues of Marseille and in St Denis, for which she is widely condemned after footage is published showing the police beating up some second generation Algerian woman just bringing her shopping home for what seems to be no reason. Other than that, Le Pen allies with other parties in parliament to give more handouts to retirees and lower the pension age, presides over a huge economic crisis, then leaves office in a wave of unpopularity.
Forcing assimilation in France, CCP Style is coup complete. Actual large scale remigration (which some on the right have fantasies of) is probably revolution complete. Neither have any chance of happening.
Yeah, I think this is pretty much guaranteed. French people are really endearing when they get all wide-eyed and spooked about the prospect of someone called Le Pen ruling in the Élysée Palace - meanwhile, the FN is basically a social-democratic party for lumpens and petit-bourgeois paupers with next to no substantial platform on taking meaningful institutional power and reversing French demographic trends. They're among the mildest "far right" party of note in Europe today, Le Pen can't even be bothered to say that Islam is incompatible with French values
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