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Somehow I doubt that Adis Ababa has the ability to mass imprison drug users, despite plausibly having much greater political will to do so. There are probably just fewer drug addicted homeless people there than in LA, and that's entirely plausible- it could be that people are too poor to buy drugs, or that robust extended family networks mean that no one is homeless(neither of these factors are at all incompatible with being a wartorn shithole). It's also possible that the lack of civil rights protections in Ethiopia mean that violators of the subway's code of conduct are simply beaten by police, and homeless crackheads respond rationally to incentives by not shitting on subway seats, without this actually resulting in fewer homeless crackheads.
No doubt this is true in most poor countries. And in fact, a system of brutalizing criminals is better than the U.S. system in all of these attributes:
Lower crime rate
Lower incidence of false conviction
Lower incidence of police brutality
But how can 3) be true if we are intentionally beating criminals? The reason is simple. Although the rates of brutality per criminal act would increase, the absolute number would be lower as crime would fall so low that there would be few criminals to beat.
On the other hand, a highly permissive society such as the United States will always have large absolute numbers of false convictions and police brutality because there are so many serious crimes committed every day.
Prediction: In the year 2025, if El Salvador maintains its current anti-crime policy, murder rates will be > 90% below peak levels, and police shooting rates will be > 50% below peak levels.
I don't think third world countries are exactly known for being safe places. Places that rely on police brutality as a primary means of enforcement generally have higher crime rates, not lower. If El Salvador meets your predictions of 90% reduction in crime rate, it will still have nearly twice the murder rate of Los Angeles, the city that prompted this discussion.
Yes, but I think you're flipping the causality. Countries with low crime rates have relaxed police enforcement because they can. Low crime rates cause low police brutality, not the other way around.
For example, the U.S. had a temporary reduction in crime following mass incarceration in the 1990s. The prison population peaked in 2008, and has now fallen by large amounts per capita. This fall is accelerating now, particularly in places like Seattle, Portland, or Los Angeles where police and prosecutors have abdicated much of their authority. It's no surprise that murder rates bottomed shortly after the prison maximum and are now increasing rapidly. And this is despite mitigating factors such as better emergency care and a much higher average age. I haven't done the math, but it's possible that adjusted for median age, the U.S. murder rate is at all-time highs.
By the way, I don't think police brutality is a good solution for a country like the US, but it works for Ethiopia because they lack the state capacity to investigate and punish crimes. In those situations it is better than the alternative which is anarchy.
Edit: One more thing. Your L.A. murder numbers are way out of date. Los Angeles had 382 murders in 2022. While 2022 population numbers are not out yet, this puts the murder rate near 10 per 100,000 which would be an increase of 56% since 2018. Ugh.
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